Irreversible Catastrophe: Climate Change as a Human Security Concern

The effects of climate change are already being felt across many parts of the world, increasingly causing new dangers to domestic and international security in the United States. With increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over essential resources like food and water, climate change is an urgent matter that seems to only get more alarming. The present-day effects of climate change are felt from the Arctic to the Midwest and natural disasters are sweeping across every country. Increased sea levels are affecting coastal regions, destroying infrastructure and making land unlivable. In return, the global economy is suffering, requiring many to spend more and more money on rebuilding and reestablishing buildings. It is no surprise that climate change is transforming the way we think about security. “This will not be the first time people have fought over land, water and resources, but this time it will be on a scale that dwarfs the conflicts of the past”, said the Congolese representative at the UN Security Council debate in April 2007. The French called it the “number one threat to mankind.” This danger is an ever-changing, tremendous conflict that will produce problems that won’t care about transnational borders. Rather, climate change will impact every single one of us and everyone is vulnerable. 

In a report in 2021, the Pentagon found that “increasing temperatures; changing precipitation patterns; and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather conditions caused by climate change are exacerbating existing risks” for the U.S. This report highlights that at a fundamental level, climate change will affect the national security of the entire country.  Analyzing the consequences of the next two decades, The National Intelligence Estimate written in 2021 is a joint assessment produced by the entire U.S. intelligence community, which is a total of 18 agencies. There are a sequence of immediate security threats that the report remarks. For example, it is likely that the temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees by 2030. Not only are we unlikely to stop this from happening, but the report also reveals the consequences of the inability to prevent it. U.S. direct consequences relate to territorial integrity which the U.S. military has been talking about rising sea levels on bases since the 1970s, if not earlier. Rising sea levels are affecting how the military undertakes military operations and then scarce resources lead to political violence and terrorism. Domestically and internationally, climate change is an issue that affects everyone. 

Federal literature outlining the domestic security implications of climate change directly looks at regional areas that are impacted, like the coastal areas or in the Arctic and also looks at how those domestic risks influence broadly. The White House’s Findings from Select Federal Reports: The National Security Implications of a Changing Climate in May 2015 suggest that climate change is not isolated to any one region, and the impacts will be felt in distinct ways. For example, coastal areas are cited as the most vulnerable to rising sea levels as critical infrastructure, major military installations, and hurricane evacuation routes are increasingly vulnerable to storm surges, and flooding worsened by climate change. An example of this domino effect is Superstorm Sandy, as the storm’s effects were exacerbated by the sea level in the New York Harbor, which had risen one foot since 1900. The storm, which left 8.5 million people without power, caused infrastructure to be destroyed, hospitals were evacuated and train and roadway tunnels and wastewater treatment facilities were flooded. 

Just like the coastal regions, the Arctic faces an interconnection between national security and climate change that is undeniable. Although this is a remote area to most Americans, the changing Arctic climate will be felt far beyond that of the region itself. According to a 2022 journal published in the Communication Earth & Environment, the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Rising ocean temperatures are causing northward range shifts of certain fish species, affecting ocean ecosystems and the communities and economies that depend on them. Placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and institutions around the world, the problems that face the Arctic showcase that climate change is far-reaching and extensive. The consequences of climate change are in your backyard, in the country, and around the globe. 

Coupled with other global dynamics, climate change will devastate the international community. Food scarcity and urbanizing populations could devastate homes, land, and infrastructure. In a Stanford article by Josie Garthwaite, Garthwaite noted, “ as early as 2025, the World Health Organization estimates that half of the world’s population will be living in water-stressed areas. The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world.” In one recent example, India has lost 70 million hectares of farmland since 2015 due to climate change. A farmer from Harigarh village in Punjab’s Barnala district, Manjeet Singh, explains this crisis, “When the crop was almost ready to harvest, there was heavy rainfall in the last week of September, followed by another two-day rain spell between Oct. 7 and 8.” Many governments will face challenges to meeting even the basic needs of their people as they confront demographic change, resource constraints, and risks of global infectious disease outbreaks. The risk of conflict may increase exponentially as well. Undoubtedly, U.S. relations with Russia and China are the worst they have been since the end of the Cold War, with a recent Department of Defense policy document warning of an “increased potential for regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed adversaries … and the potential for adversarial nuclear escalation in crisis or conflict."  The intelligence report identified 11 countries as being particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and particularly unable to cope with its effects. That list included four countries near the United States, among them Guatemala and Haiti; three countries with nuclear weapons (North Korea, Pakistan, and India); and two countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, that the United States invaded in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The National Security Council released there own report that takes a look at how climate change is already pushing people to flee their residences. The report noted one forecast suggesting that climate change could lead to almost three percent of the populations of Latin America, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa moving within their countries by 2050, which is more than 143 million people. The problems that the world is facing today are illustrated by science and governments. But, are there ways in which the effects of climate change can be reduced? 

Regarding natural disasters, the recommendations of the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force and the White House have emphasized the importance of rebuilding damaged infrastructure to a higher standard that can withstand the risks posed by higher sea levels, increased flooding, and other impacts. This would allow buildings to be built that fight tremendous damage and therefore prevent interminable economic struggles. On December 8, President Joe Biden signed an executive order to spearhead his administration’s efforts to combat climate change. The Biden executive order “will reduce emissions across federal operations, invest in American clean energy industries and manufacturing, and create clean, healthy, and resilient communities.” In addition to his executive order, Biden has backed infrastructure spending that would incentivize industry to produce more electric vehicles and other technologies that could eventually lower emissions. Most countries have set aspirational nationwide net neutrality goals for 2050. Suriname and Bhutan claim already to be net neutral, while other nations, including Uruguay and Sweden, are aiming for sooner, and a few, like China and Singapore, are targeting later dates. However, even with this optimism, few nations have made urgent domestic legislation or detailed plans to meet this goal for a full energy transition. The urgency of the effects of climate change is far more than lacking, it is disturbing. If governments and the international community continue to do little, we will promise the worst possible outcome for future generations. 

Climate change needs to be prioritized as a human security issue. Not only will there be catastrophic damage to infrastructure, but there will also be mass migration and unyielded competition in the international community for resources. Certain regions will be far more at risk than others, including third-world countries, but the effects of climate change will be disastrous and fatal to all. Destroying ecosystems, homes, and livelihoods, climate change doesn’t raise questions about whether it will affect human security, but it is a question of when. The international community needs to collaborate with one another to prevent conflict and future fatal impacts. Policies must be urgent, global agreements must be ensured, and a sense of desperation must be acquired to create change that is crucial for the health of the population. The world is changing rapidly, and the more we address these global security challenges, the better it will be for everyone. Climate change needs to be taken seriously, and these natural disasters are no longer containable. The planet is practically screaming it’s time to wake up.