Marine Le Pen Barred From Running in 2027 French Elections

Associated Press/Michel Euler

On March 31st, French courts found the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, Marine Le Pen, guilty of embezzling millions of euros of European Union funds. This decision shook national politics, making Le Pen ineligible for the 2027 presidential election in France. 

This court decision has massive implications. Before the verdict, Le Pen was the frontrunner in national polling ahead of the 2027 French election. Projected to win 32.0 percent of the vote, with the runner-up only receiving 23.5 percent, Le Pen was the clear national favorite. After running three times before, the next election would have been Le Pen’s best chance at winning the French presidency. 

There are still chances Le Pen could run for president. She is determined not to back down, stating that “I’m a fighter and I’m not going to be eliminated.” Part of her strategy to undermine court supremacy has been attacking the legitimacy of the institution, calling the court’s decision a “‘nuclear bomb detonated by a corrupt system.” Moreover, Le Pen has received support in her fight against the judiciary, as some supporters have sent death threats to the judges who issued her conviction. A French court of appeals also said it would expedite her case, allowing for her trial to take place before next summer. This would allow her to run a successful presidential campaign for the following election. 

What’s next for the Rassemblement National?

In light of this crisis, the Rassemblement National must decide its next move. Although Le Pen is a cornerstone of the party, which was founded by her father Jean-Marie in 1972, the wisest decision could be to look towards another candidate. Even if her appeal is heard in 2026, there is a chance the current sentence will be upheld, shortening the time another candidate might need to prepare for the presidential election. 

Within the Rassemblement National, the clear choice for successor is Jordan Bardella. Le Pen’s charismatic 29-year-old prodigé has taken over the party since her conviction. But, this does not mean the Rassemblement National is prepared to support him in a presidential race. Le Pen stated that Bardella is “a tremendous asset for the movement. … I hope we don’t have to use that asset any sooner than we have to.” Bardella is remaining committed to Le Pen, affirming that he will “continue to fight with her to the end, hand in hand. I am totally loyal to her.” 

All in all, Rassemblement National members are likely to stand by Le Pen’s side, with Politico stating that she is “almost universally worshipped within her party. None of her allies appear ready to tell her that endorsing Bardella now, rather than waiting for the courts to rule on her case, is the safest way to protect her movement.” Even at the risk of an underdeveloped presidential election, her allies are unwilling to jump-ship to Bardella.  

If Le Pen refuses to offer her support, this could cause a rift not only in their party but in far-right French politics at large.  It seems unlikely, but depending on the outcome of the appeal case and the level of support garnered by Bardella before the 2027 presidential campaign, it is possible that he could step out from behind her shadow. 

Even if Le Pen and the Rassemblement National choose to endorse Bardella, this is not universally viewed as the best option. “Bardella is still quite a young politician. It would be a big step for him to be the presidential candidate in two years’ time” states Nicholas Starin, associate professor at John Cabot University in Rome. 

Beyond that, Le Pen’s conviction could have devastating consequences for her and the Rassemblement National.  While some believe her protégé Jordan Bardella could take the presidential ticket if she is prevented from running, others think rival right-wing parties will benefit most from the situation. As France demonstrates increasingly conservative tendencies, far-right politicians such as Éric Zemmour, Gérald Darmanin, or Bruno Retailleau could seize the opportunity and gain votes with Le Pen out of the picture. 

Le Pen and Trump

After a life spent in right-wing politics, Le Pen has recently focused her attention on demonstrating that she will put national interests first, building the narrative that she is the best candidate for France. By not praising President Donald Trump’s electoral victory and not attending his inauguration, Le Pen may be acknowledging that many French citizens view Trump as a threat to Europe, even if they agree with his far-right stances, prioritizing her people above pleasing the American president. 

For his part, despite a cold relation with Le Pen in the past, Trump has expressed his support for her after the indictment. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the “Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech, and censor their Political Opponent.” His comparison reflects the image of martyrdom he has used to rally support behind himself in previous presidential elections.  

Many have drawn parallels between Le Pen’s sentencing and the multiple cases called against Trump, namely “for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star, for attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election that he lost, and for retaining classified documents after his first term ended.” In the United States, as Trump regained control of the White House, it seems his charges had little impact on the political landscape, potentially demonstrating that some Americans do not take powerful criminals seriously: if one has enough influence, they may be able to get away with illegal activity. If anything, Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric capitalizes on his convictions, using them to portray the idea that judicial institutions target far-right leaders who challenge the “corrupt” system, giving him a clear motivation to support Le Pen in her appeals process. 

Yet, unlike Trump’s charges, France will feel the consequences of a prominent politician’s  indictment. Le Pen’s four-year prison sentence was reduced to two under house arrest, and her 100,000€ fine should not cause too much trouble, but the five-year ban on running for office could have severe consequences. Despite his wrongdoings, Trump’s criminal and civil charges resulted in few consequences, as he has run for president twice since the original charges were pressed. On the other hand, French judges are not willing to let Le Pen go free for her crimes, even though she was predicted to win the next presidential election. 

Could Marine Le Pen’s sentencing set an international, or at least European or French, precedent of prosecuting high-level politicians when they commit crimes? What this means for far-right French politics is yet to be seen as Le Pen’s appeal is processed and the 2027 election approaches.

Trump’s Decision to Invite Zemmour

French far-right pundit Éric Zemmour - Stefano Rellandini, AFP

When creating the guest list for his inauguration, American president Donald Trump carefully chose which international attendees he wanted there. So when far-right politician Éric Zemmour arrived from France, instead of President Emmanuel Macron, or his counterpart Marine Le Pen—who has lost to Macron in the past two presidential elections—it may indicate a change of pace in US-Franco relations for the next few years. 

Tensions between Trump and Le Pen are not a new phenomenon. In January 2017, Le Pen waited hours to see Trump at his New York City hotel, but the meeting never took place. This caused a rift between the two politicians, decreasing Le Pen’s admiration for Trump and leading her to ban lower-ranking members of her party from commenting on the 2024 election, stating that his style is “incompatible” with her party. 

On the other hand, Éric Zemmour has gained media attention since he boasted of a “warm” 40-minute phone call with Trump back in February 2022, where the American president told him: “Don’t give in to anything, stand your ground, remain courageous, it’s tenacity and endurance that pay off.” 

Despite receiving Trump’s backing, Zemmour’s party – Reconquête, meaning “win back” – did not win a seat in either the 2022 or 2024 parliamentary elections. Being invited to Trump’s inauguration indicates that Zemmour is likely to remain on the fringes of French society, despite Trump’s politics becoming more mainstream in the United States. While there are certainly far-right sentiments in France, even those citizens are concerned with their safety and prosperity. As such, while they may agree with Trump’s politics, his disregard for European interests is worrying for those on the continent. 

This is where Marine Le Pen comes in. Le Pen might be taken more seriously by the French in the next election precisely because of her absence from Trump’s inauguration. Le Pen represents far-right tendencies while also protecting the nation rather than disregarding French concerns about Trump. 

“If she wants to claim to govern and defend the interests of France, she cannot appear as someone who’s in the immediate proximity of Donald Trump, especially since Trump has a very aggressive discourse towards Europe,” states Olivier Costa, director at the Sciences Po Center for Political Research. 

Le Pen’s distance from Trump may help her win the presidency next, and it will be interesting to see the direction that French far-right politics takes in the coming years. With Macron unable to run for a third term in 2027, Le Pen is the front runner in polling, with projections giving her about 37% of the vote, placing her far ahead in the first electoral round. If given the choice between Zemmour and Le Pen, will supporters side with a fringe American-backed politician, or a more established candidate doing more to protect French and European interests? 

Although Trump’s first presidential term was difficult for Europe, many fear his second could be worse. France and the European Union are already steeped in political and economic struggles of their own. These could be exacerbated by tensions between the United States and China, and Trump threatening to pull out of NATO would mark a decisive turn for the war in Ukraine. 

Trump’s decision to invite a fringe far-right French politician—instead of the republic’s president—demonstrates that he is not interested in maintaining traditional relations with France. Instead, he favors non-mainstream alternative elements of the country, such as parties and individuals not actually representing the French people. Trump wants to pick and choose how he handles transatlantic relations, doing it on his own terms rather than following traditional diplomatic customs. 

However, it is curious that Macron was not invited to Trump’s inauguration, as Trump was invited to the reopening ceremony of Notre-Dame de Paris in December. Unfortunately, Trump’s inauguration guest list seems to be evidence that Macron’s attempt to get in the U.S. president’s good graces was ineffective. 

Macron echoed the fears of many Europeans when he stated: “The United States of America has two priorities. The USA first, and that is legitimate, and the China issue, second. And the European issue is not a geopolitical priority for the coming years and decades.” While it remains to be seen how Trump will navigate the future of transatlantic relations, it is clear that the nation’s link with France will change during the first two years of Trump’s presidency, as well as after the upcoming French elections in 2027.

Hungarian Spy Scandal with the EU

Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán speaks at the European Parliament - EP/Flickr

Last month, the European Parliament reviewed concerns about illegal espionage conducted by Információs Hivatal (IH), Hungary’s civilian foreign intelligence service, on European Union (EU) officials between 2015 and 2017. This information was first revealed in an investigation by the Belgian daily newspaper De Tijd and the Hungarian NGO Direkt36 published last December. In their article, journalists Szabolcs Panyi and András Pethő detail how the Hungarian government initiated multiple espionage attempts against the EU’s Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF). This came at a time when the office was investigating the Hungarian Prime Minister's son-in-law’s company, Elios, on the suspension of corrupt tenders. The espionage included phone tapping and IH officers stalking the officers, with the latter activity eventually leading to their discovery, as they were unable to maintain their cover.

More recently, the Hungarian government has continued to spy on its own citizens. In a 2021 interview with the Committee to Protect Journalists, Panyi discussed how the IH used Pegasus spyware to surveil journalists, inhibiting their ability to conduct investigative journalism. Panyi, an outspoken critic of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and a member of one of the few remaining Hungarian news outlets insulated from government influence, was a top target for the attacks. In both instances (2015-17 and 2021), the Hungarian government has not denied their involvement in the espionage, instead maintaining that it was used legally to investigate “national security threats.”

This intrusion is yet another instance of Orbán’s broader crackdown on independent media in Hungary, and a symptom of the broader democratic backsliding that’s happening in the state.  This blatant violation of democratic norms fractures their trust with the EU and the other democratic members in the alliance. Despite these tendencies, as of February 11th, the EU has not taken any concrete action against Hungary in regards to their espionage or established any additional laws protecting against espionage. The EU’s hesitation likely stems from fears of further increasing tension with Hungary, , though the national security risk that this poses would seem to merit a swift and decisive action.

More broadly, as the war in Ukraine continues, and pressure from Russia and China intensifies, the EU needs to project unity to protect themselves from foreign interference. Without a firm condemnation of Hungary, they risk setting a dangerous precedent for other global powers or EU members to gather intelligence on the EU. This precedent could also lead to the erosion of the integrity of democratic norms, both in Hungary and other EU countries, as Hungary continues to spy on their citizens. Ultimately, this dispute exacerbates the already existing rift between the EU and Hungary, as Budapest has increasingly pushed back against the alliance (including recently threatening to withhold support for the EU’s prolongation of sanctions on Russia).

A Fractured EU Navigates a 2nd Trump Term

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

While President Donald Trump returned to office in the United States, leaders throughout the European Union (EU) were busy mapping out their own course at the World Economic Forum. At the latest conference, held in Davos, Switzerland, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlined a plan for Europe’s future on the world stage. While von der Leyen avoided direct criticism of the U.S. president, her speech marked a crucial pivot in EU foreign policy: independence from the U.S. Seeking to avoid a repeat of the tariff headaches from Trump’s first term, it seems the EU president has opted for Europe to separate its political fortunes from the volatile superpower. Amongst the alliance, however, the response has lacked cohesion; factions have emerged as leaders reconcile and navigate the converging crises of Trump’s “America First” foreign policy and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Some European leaders, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, have stuck close to the American business mogul. Meloni, who attended Trump’s inauguration, has been a stalwart ally of the GOP strongman, leading some to call her Europe’s “Trump whisperer.” The Italian PM’s close ties with Trump, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head Elon Musk, suggest her administration may maintain warm relations with the U.S., and move in lockstep with its transatlantic partner for the next 4 years. Similarly, several members of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party also made an appearance at Trump’s inauguration. While the conservative Christian Democrats party, led by Friedrich Merz, are best positioned to win Germany’s upcoming elections, the AfD may still influence a strengthening of German-American relations and an increased closeness to the Trump administration.

Conversely, French President Emmanuel Macron, who has long been the EU’s top proponent of strategic autonomy, has responded to Trump’s inauguration by calling for an increase in defense expenditures among EU countries. While Macron’s pleas for European strategic autonomy fell on deaf ears during the Biden administration, Trump’s return–and the continued Russia-Ukraine war–have reignited talks of the EU forging its own path, independent of the U.S. Indeed, Macron’s ambition has been reinvigorated, as he’s urged his fellow European leaders to face the realities of the Trump administration and end the EU’s reliance on the U.S. for defense. The alliance may be positioned to achieve this feat, as EU defense spending hit record highs in 2023 and 2024, and is expected to balloon this year, with 22 of the 27 EU states increasing their defense spending.

Support for stronger European defense has been echoed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has condemned the U.S.’ inability to pass legislation that would provide more aid to Ukraine. Poland, whose estimated defense expenditures as a share of GDP (%) in 2024 were the highest among the NATO alliance (at 4.12%), has given dozens of packages in military aid to Ukraine and served as one of Kyiv’s most steadfast allies in their fight for sovereignty.

Tusk’s concerns are undoubtedly geographically motivated, as Poland’s proximity to Russia makes conflict a perennial concern. This geopolitical anxiety has also motivated the Nordic-Baltic states (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden) to increase their military spending in recent years. Beyond that, in November, Tusk and other leaders of Nordic-Baltic countries held a security summit in Sweden, issuing a joint statement on the need to take greater responsibility for their own defense. This recognition of the necessity of European strategic autonomy was music to the ears of Macron, who attended the conference virtually. While the U.S. has historically been the champion of the liberal international order and Western security, these moves from Europe suggest a willingness to take the mantle in the event that Trump abdicates the throne.

Meanwhile, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has charted a different course: a pro-Russia one. Since his return to office in 2023, Fico has met with Putin, ended Slovakian military aid to Ukraine, and pushed back against EU sanctions on Russia. While the Slovakian PM has defended his move, citing the necessity of developing strong relations with both sides, the Slovakian people haven’t bought it. Tens of thousands of protestors throughout the country have called for Fico’s resignation in recent months in opposition to his foreign policy pivot.

Similarly, in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán threatened to condition his support for Ukraine on the maintenance of a pipeline to provide Budapest with energy. Orbán has defended this stipulation by arguing that Hungary, who imports 80% of their oil from Russia, has lost €19 billion from EU sanctions on Russia. While the Hungarian PM backed down and voted to continue sanctions, his threats should not be dismissed, as they’re emblematic of a broader cohesion problem that the alliance is facing. While the unanimity requirement for EU decisions didn’t prevent action this time, if Orbán’s hesitation grows, or Fico drags his feet too, it could damage the ability of the bloc to show resolve against Russia–and illiberal values–and support for Ukraine–and democratic values.

As the EU navigates a period rife with uncertainty, it remains to be seen which factions will shape the alliance’s foreign policy going forward. Only time will tell whether Macron’s plans for the alliance manifest in the coming years or are destined to remain a pipe dream forever.