On March 31st, French courts found the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, Marine Le Pen, guilty of embezzling millions of euros of European Union funds. This decision shook national politics, making Le Pen ineligible for the 2027 presidential election in France.
This court decision has massive implications. Before the verdict, Le Pen was the frontrunner in national polling ahead of the 2027 French election. Projected to win 32.0 percent of the vote, with the runner-up only receiving 23.5 percent, Le Pen was the clear national favorite. After running three times before, the next election would have been Le Pen’s best chance at winning the French presidency.
There are still chances Le Pen could run for president. She is determined not to back down, stating that “I’m a fighter and I’m not going to be eliminated.” Part of her strategy to undermine court supremacy has been attacking the legitimacy of the institution, calling the court’s decision a “‘nuclear bomb detonated by a corrupt system.” Moreover, Le Pen has received support in her fight against the judiciary, as some supporters have sent death threats to the judges who issued her conviction. A French court of appeals also said it would expedite her case, allowing for her trial to take place before next summer. This would allow her to run a successful presidential campaign for the following election.
What’s next for the Rassemblement National?
In light of this crisis, the Rassemblement National must decide its next move. Although Le Pen is a cornerstone of the party, which was founded by her father Jean-Marie in 1972, the wisest decision could be to look towards another candidate. Even if her appeal is heard in 2026, there is a chance the current sentence will be upheld, shortening the time another candidate might need to prepare for the presidential election.
Within the Rassemblement National, the clear choice for successor is Jordan Bardella. Le Pen’s charismatic 29-year-old prodigé has taken over the party since her conviction. But, this does not mean the Rassemblement National is prepared to support him in a presidential race. Le Pen stated that Bardella is “a tremendous asset for the movement. … I hope we don’t have to use that asset any sooner than we have to.” Bardella is remaining committed to Le Pen, affirming that he will “continue to fight with her to the end, hand in hand. I am totally loyal to her.”
All in all, Rassemblement National members are likely to stand by Le Pen’s side, with Politico stating that she is “almost universally worshipped within her party. None of her allies appear ready to tell her that endorsing Bardella now, rather than waiting for the courts to rule on her case, is the safest way to protect her movement.” Even at the risk of an underdeveloped presidential election, her allies are unwilling to jump-ship to Bardella.
If Le Pen refuses to offer her support, this could cause a rift not only in their party but in far-right French politics at large. It seems unlikely, but depending on the outcome of the appeal case and the level of support garnered by Bardella before the 2027 presidential campaign, it is possible that he could step out from behind her shadow.
Even if Le Pen and the Rassemblement National choose to endorse Bardella, this is not universally viewed as the best option. “Bardella is still quite a young politician. It would be a big step for him to be the presidential candidate in two years’ time” states Nicholas Starin, associate professor at John Cabot University in Rome.
Beyond that, Le Pen’s conviction could have devastating consequences for her and the Rassemblement National. While some believe her protégé Jordan Bardella could take the presidential ticket if she is prevented from running, others think rival right-wing parties will benefit most from the situation. As France demonstrates increasingly conservative tendencies, far-right politicians such as Éric Zemmour, Gérald Darmanin, or Bruno Retailleau could seize the opportunity and gain votes with Le Pen out of the picture.
Le Pen and Trump
After a life spent in right-wing politics, Le Pen has recently focused her attention on demonstrating that she will put national interests first, building the narrative that she is the best candidate for France. By not praising President Donald Trump’s electoral victory and not attending his inauguration, Le Pen may be acknowledging that many French citizens view Trump as a threat to Europe, even if they agree with his far-right stances, prioritizing her people above pleasing the American president.
For his part, despite a cold relation with Le Pen in the past, Trump has expressed his support for her after the indictment. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the “Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech, and censor their Political Opponent.” His comparison reflects the image of martyrdom he has used to rally support behind himself in previous presidential elections.
Many have drawn parallels between Le Pen’s sentencing and the multiple cases called against Trump, namely “for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star, for attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election that he lost, and for retaining classified documents after his first term ended.” In the United States, as Trump regained control of the White House, it seems his charges had little impact on the political landscape, potentially demonstrating that some Americans do not take powerful criminals seriously: if one has enough influence, they may be able to get away with illegal activity. If anything, Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric capitalizes on his convictions, using them to portray the idea that judicial institutions target far-right leaders who challenge the “corrupt” system, giving him a clear motivation to support Le Pen in her appeals process.
Yet, unlike Trump’s charges, France will feel the consequences of a prominent politician’s indictment. Le Pen’s four-year prison sentence was reduced to two under house arrest, and her 100,000€ fine should not cause too much trouble, but the five-year ban on running for office could have severe consequences. Despite his wrongdoings, Trump’s criminal and civil charges resulted in few consequences, as he has run for president twice since the original charges were pressed. On the other hand, French judges are not willing to let Le Pen go free for her crimes, even though she was predicted to win the next presidential election.
Could Marine Le Pen’s sentencing set an international, or at least European or French, precedent of prosecuting high-level politicians when they commit crimes? What this means for far-right French politics is yet to be seen as Le Pen’s appeal is processed and the 2027 election approaches.