State of Present-Day Federalism

The modern age is seeing once again a rise in authoritarianism and decline in freedom. As much as today’s globalized age and an accompanying increased tendency of people and ideas to come together and mix or clash calls upon greater mutual understanding, patience, and pluralism, we instead witness a rise in isolationist, nationalist policies. Pluralism, or a system in which two or more groups, principles, sources of authority coexist, is by definition supposed to lead to an increase of public tolerance, inclusion, and peace even in societies featuring a complex mix of ideological and ethnic belongings.

A mechanism that seemingly goes perfectly in hand with pluralist tendencies is precisely federalism. This is because the very idea of federalism allows for a distribution and compartmentalization of power in a way that ideally echoes societal needs and provides for an appropriate division of powers and greater societal and regional cohesion. However, with much left to still be explored and better understood, different styles of federalism have developed, with some favoring division along political lines while others along social lines, each with various degrees of success in ensuring citizen liberties and preventing abuse of power that are some of the core goals of a federal order.

Given the increased complexity of national, regional, and international bonds in the globalized world, ideas of pluralism or coexistence of various often competitive entities becomes imperative. In order to further develop potential for federal political order to support this kind of pluralism leading to greater peace and co-existence in the modern world, this article will reflect on different ways in which federalism is presently working to do this in countries across the world.

The Case of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is one of the oldest organized sovereign states. Throughout its long history, it has witnessed a number of power changes, migrations, internal, regional, and global turbulence, for the most part managing to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity in spite of all these threats including European colonialism and major financial crises of the past century. The Derg regime replaced its monarchy with nationalization and attempt at socialism by assassinating the last Ethiopian emperor Haile Selassie and changing political and economic circumstances to match the regime’s ideology. This period of Ethiopian history featured authoritarian behavior on behalf of the regime and is remembered with censorship and brutal behavior towards civilians. Everything changed again in 1991 when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) won against the Derg regime and established democratic rule in the country. This is now being yet again challenged as, following dissolution of the EPRDF due to internal strife and shifting power dynamics, Prime Minister and Noble prize winner Abiy Ahmed broke off with his own Prosperity Party and attempted to yet again change political scenario in Ethiopia. Opposed Abiy Ahmed’s promise on bringing prosperity and economic and democratic progress to the country stand armies labeled as rebels such as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that in turn labels Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s actions as power-grabbing and undemocratic. The conflict is currently revolving primarily along ethnopolitical lines and has so far caused thousands of deaths and forced millions to flee. All of this comes following a period of perceived tolerance that marked the era of the EPRDF. As such, the regime of EPRDF that was marked by political focus on ethnic federalism and need for pluralism along the often described as divisive ethnic lines, serves as a perfect example and a test to durability and functionality of federalism when uniquely framed along ethnic divisions.

The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) stayed in power in Ethiopia between 1991 and 2019. On top of its national emphasis on ethnic federalism and pluralism, it in itself featured very pluralist and compartmentalized politics. The party was actually a coalition of four political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The very existence of EPRDF required constant collaboration amongst the leaders of each party within the coalition, with special value placed on party, local, regional, and federal elections. Ethiopia first witnessed a democratic and federal ruling arrangement following the EPRDF ascend to power. The democratically elected House of Representatives chooses the president who has largely a ceremonial role as well as the prime minister who actually holds the executive power. In order to ensure nonpartisanship and separation of powers, the 6-year presidential and ministerial terms are usually meant not to overlap with the 5-year terms of the members of the House of Representatives.

The ideas of the federal government and the ruling coalition were passed onto the entire nation as the country was federally compartmentalized along ethnic lines, with Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo, being some of the largest ethnicities within Ethiopia having their separate local politics that would often center around their ethnic grouping, space, and culture. Southern Ethiopian tribes that largely practice traditional religions and are generally fewer in number were also able to receive special protections and recognition in this way. The ideal is that each ethnicity would be able to thrive on its own terms while also functioning as one on a unified national front with a form of supra-ethnic identity that would characterize them simultaneously as Ethiopian along their other ethnic, cultural, and local markers. This practice, while practiced in its own unique way everywhere due to unique ethnic and sociopolitical make-ups of each location, is not unique to Ethiopia. Other countries that featured or continue to feature this arrangement to varying degrees of success include Nepal, Pakistan, South Sudan, and historically Apartheid-era South Africa through its locally-led Bantustans, as well as former Yugoslavia and to an extent present-day Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Ethnic federalism is presently blamed for Ethiopian political fallout and ongoing war as now that Abiy Ahmed - a member of the Oromo, the largest ethnolinguistic group of the country that has traditionally been scarcely represented in politics - came to hold substantial power, the scales quickly tipped and fragile balance was disturbed as the traditional rulers usually of Tigrayan ethnicity sided against the present status quo. Ethnic federalism is, in short, blamed for maintaining and facilitating easier inflammation of ethnic fault lines because it by nature maintains these ethnic divisions through the way it facilitates politics and attempts to maintain inclusion. However, an alternative view to ethnic federalism also persists. It is easy to quickly label ethnic federalism as the cause of all troubles when, in fact, it might be simply a manifestation of causes that are buried deeper in the past. Oftentimes, ethnic federalism was in fact an imperfect albeit rare solution to more deeply engraved ethnic divisions and internal struggles. Countries that feature ethnic federalism, as evidenced from the list above, also tend to stand witness to centuries of foreign rule and colonial oppression and have been exposed to a number of migrations and complex ethnic and religious diversity as a result of this dynamic history. Thus, ethnic federalism can appear as the only possible solution, albeit imperfect. In this way, ethnic federalism can be awarded blame for maintaining ethnic fault lines, but should also be judged with an understanding of local complexities and unique situations the country found itself in historically and presently.

The Case of the Republic of India

The Republic of India features a highly diverse and complex social and political landscape. Having gained independence from the British Empire in 1947, India cherished its freedom and democracy ever since. However, India underwent a partition with Pakistan in that same year due to disagreements often labeled as ethno-religious which echo to this day and that affected the potential for a more unified South Asia. This perhaps showed flaws in ability to accurately and in a pluralist and inclusive fashion represent all of its constituents. All of this, similar to other cases where a need for ethnic federalism seems the apparent albeit imperfect solution, is against the backdrop of complex and divisive colonial heritage. In this case too, we see a need for greater attention towards ethnic foundations of political opinion that, for better or worse given flaws of ethnic federalism, are not as emphasized in India as in the previous case of Ethiopia. Regardless, present-day Indian politics show a focus on the increasingly Hindu nationalist ruling party and the emphasis on constitutional integrity and a rather unique form of centralized federalism. India, the world’s most populous democracy, now features a complex interaction between demands of local and somewhat central federal government, with demands balanced to carefully meet local needs for self-agency and linguistic integrity with the federal government’s need for national control. The system seems somewhat contradictory yet has shown to work resiliently for more than half a century.

In the case of India, we find a scenario more reminiscent of countries that adopted ethnic federalism succumbing to the need to balance ethnic divisions and unique cultural, religious, and linguistic spaces alike to those in India, here met with a persistent focus towards an emphasized federal level politics and nationalized parliament. The nationalized, centralized federal government has seen an interruption in Indian politics, especially in the 1990s following failure of the Indian nationalist Congress party that dates back to the independence movement, to maintain its traditional overwhelming majority in the parliament and consistent regional resistance towards centralized governance as witnessed in provinces such as Assam, Kashmir, Mizoram, and Punjab in the 1970s and 80s. This resulted in a rise of regionalization and coalitionary politics in the coming decades only to be yet again interrupted with the rise of Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP).

India serves as an example of a nation carefully balancing demands for national unity and regional cultural, ethnic, and linguistic identities without relying on often divisive ethnic federalism and clear political compartmentalization along fault lines. However, the rise of nationalist politics that now threaten to establish a scenario alike to tyranny of the majority in a country that prides itself on its pluralism and democracy that withstands millenia-old demographic and class diversity shows that this promise may be too fragile and questions ability for a more centralized federation to ensure pluralism and civilian protections. On the other hand, Indian politics has previously managed to survive threats to its division of powers and imposition of presidential over federal and constitutional rule in landmark cases such as S. R. Bommai v. Union of India (1994) that ensured protection of regional administration and supremacy of federal, constitutional rule against the backdrop of presidential attempts at misusing constitutional authority of Article 356 to curb local autonomy. This means that there is still hope for resiliency of Indian uniquely centralized federal political institutions to withstand the pressure of internal nationalisms that threaten destabilization of the Indian federal system.

The Case of the Russian Federation

The largest country in the world, Russia, features its own version of federalism as well. The Russian Federation emerged following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It became an attempt to balance the traditionally highly centralized power of Russian political leaders with the vast space and diversity of people and regions it governs, against the backdrop of a modern globalized and interdependent world. The Russian Federation as such consists of a number of areas with established regional governance that are all considered equal federal subjects albeit with diverse degrees of autonomy. There are 85 such federal subjects, albeit the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol are two areas that are not yet internationally recognized as belonging to Russia. The federal subjects, based on their degree of autonomy and specific national considerations are divided into oblasts, republics, krais, autonomous okrugs, federal cities, and autonomous oblasts. Of these, republics and autonomous okrugs and oblasts or areas tend to be home to specific ethnic minorities where we see a degree of federal compartmentalization along ethnic lines. Given Russia’s vast territory featuring over 193 different ethnic groups, an aspect of ethnic federalism is not surprising , albeit fears of destabilization of this vast country often results in an emphasis on the core Russian, or Slavic, ethnicity as a state foundation.

While each federal subject has its own head, parliament, and constitutional court, federal politics, especially since the turn of the century, have come to dominate the Russian political landscape. The wording of the Russian Constitution allocates the president with primary relationship to maintenance of constitutional integrity and the federal presidential head also can choose degrees to which regional autonomy is reflected in practice. Regional governance of Russian federal subjects also is set up in a way that reflects the overarching federal government’s hierarchical structure and can thus serve to additionally reflect the degree of centralization favored by the federal government on regional governance institutions, as may presently be the case given the state of Russian politics centered on its president. This leaves integrity of minority rights as well as safeguarding of the separation of powers, civilian freedoms, and decisions regarding international relations, such as the decision to sign treaties or go to war, largely in the hands of the executive branch or the president. Implications of this scenario are evident in the ongoing attack on Ukraine that does not seem to feature an approval on a federal but rather on a centralized presidential level, as well as attempts to undermine and silence all internal opposition, again showing the overwhelming real-life implications of (mis)application of federalism. A greater recognition of the importance of separation of powers and checks and balances as key characteristics of federalism, as well as greater appreciation of civil liberties and powers vested in regional governments and autonomous regions would result in a more favorable case for pluralism and inclusion of the highly diverse political, ethnic, and cultural landscape of the world’s largest country.

The Case of the United States of America

The United States of America, or arguably the first modern world democracy, features a centuries-old constitution that establishes a very clear separation of powers and voting provisions. On a federal level, it features legislative, executive, and judicial separation of powers that many modern democracies take inspiration from, while on a territorial governance level, the country features what some describe as a true example of different states with their own degree of autonomy coming together to form “a more perfect union.” Decisions on the powers granted to states vs. the federal government are constitutionally divided and inalienable. However, states: a) often compete with one another to attract businesses by lowering taxes which hurts state-funded programs, b) can experience economic inequalities across state lines, and c) there is also a degree to which federal funding can manipulate states into accepting or enforcing certain kinds of legislation to which they otherwise would not agree upon, as seen in the enforcement of prostitution, drinking, substance control, and historically even slavery laws. Similarly, there is a weakness in the US ability to respond to pressures that need a more unified central government, as, for example, in cases of grave financial distress seen in the Great Depression.

However, the US was able to withstand many tests to its political system. The challenge of the Great Depression was resolved through unprecedented overarching federal policies showing the willingness of regional governing bodies to accept a more centralized federal functioning in times of grave need. On the other hand, the US failed to uphold integrity of its democratic institutions and territorial unity in the 1860s when it underwent a civil war revolving precisely around the issue of state rights and relation of the federal government towards the country’s particularly tragic disagreement on the institution of slavery.

Interestingly, the US was initially envisioned by its first president George Washington in his farewell address as a nonpartisan entity that would as such facilitate seemingly endless political plurality and inclusion. However, since the turn of the 19th century to the present day, the US features a rigid two-party system that leaves little space for a more nuanced ideological debate in its legislative body, the Congress, that also plays a major role in the decision to go to war or engage in international economic cooperation. The US curiously also finds itself amidst international criticism for imperial tendencies and overreliance on its military industrial complex. The state of constantly being in war campaigns around the world which received a highly mixed public opinion in the last couple of decades and (mis)treatment of its territories and indigenous/minority populations only serve to enforce the aforementioned criticism and further question US ability to ensure political, ideological, and cultural integrity of all of its subjects. In the end, a greater appreciation for the role of centralized government approaches in historically maintaining the country’s stability and minority protection coupled with a less rigid division of the congressional representation of public opinion may assist the US on the path of greater pluralism, stability, and inclusion.

The Case of the Argentine Republic

The Argentine Republic stands as an example of federalism from the South American continent. Argentina features a presidential representative democracy akin to that of the US where the president is in charge of the executive power, the National Congress possess legislative power while the judicial power is vested in the Supreme Court. Argentina similarly exhibits a highly decentralized political system, with each of its 23 provinces exercising considerable regional power and maintaining considerable ability to influence debates on the national levels through representation in the legislative branch. However, regional politics tend to suffer from exclusionary practices which then translate to misrepresentation of a region or a part of the region’s population and damage the cohesiveness of politics on the greater federal level, and Argentine congressional structure also can have unbalanced representation, having often been ranked highest globally on overrepresentation of some regions in the upper chamber. This may be a consequence of the post-colonial effects that see a translation of the exclusionary elite-based politics of the Spanish Empire translated in the modern world. Argentina is additionally grappling with dictatorial experiences such as that of the military junta rule of the 1970s that curbed pluralism and civil liberties but now also serve as a reminder of the fragility and importance of federal and pluralist ideals.

 Of particular attention are also the rights of the indigenous people in Argentine areas, that have faced centuries of abuse due to European colonialism and remain at threat in the post-colonial world. While indigenous peoples and integrity of their land, language, and culture are now federally recognized and under constitutional protections that many can learn from, in practice they often still face discrimination and theft from their lands and also stand victim to exclusion from political presence, including on local, province, and federal levels. In short, the federal structure of Argentina may benefit from greater enforcement of these protections as well as from greater focus on transparent and fair elections and representation on regional levels to ensure a more balanced discussion and development in the National Congress. Additionally, Argentine development policy initiatives could benefit from a sustained focus on perceiving Argentine provinces not as homogenous isolated units, as was traditionally the case, but as interconnected entities that should be on a shared development track coupled with cooperation from both all levels of government with civil society and flourishing local initiatives.  

Conclusion

Federalism, while at its core a system of governance favoring division of powers and participation of multiple entities in a shared political process, can differ significantly in the way that it is practiced. As evidenced in the cases above, the way federalism is to be manifested is highly dependent on a country’s history, past institutions, as well as features of its political, ethnic, and cultural makeup. The unifying lessons from examples above show the need for a strong constitutional backing in establishment of a federal political order, as well as the importance of the precise and detailed wording of this endeavor and ability to enforce constitutional integrity through a clear separation of powers and rule of law. The importance of separation of powers and check of balances, as well as constitutional and federal government’s ability to maintain protection of minority rights also proved of instrumental importance and challenge no matter what region and historical background a country finds itself in. An additional consideration when establishing a federal style of governance is the need to understand implications that ethnic divisions will play on the system and how ethnic divisions can be mitigated through democratic, inclusive policies on local, regional, and federal levels to avoid divisions while ensuring freedoms of ethnic, cultural, and religious expression. Lastly, there is also a need to recognize the dynamics between central and regional governance levels, appreciating and considering the need for centralized actions as well as federal, regional divisions and autonomy, and ensuring that the two levels of government are able to coexist, maintain clear communication in the interest of citizenry, and also maintain checks and balances on each other through constitutional, judiciary, and democratic means.

The Perils of Democracy: Analyzing the Gradual Rise in Nationalism Among its Institutions

Democratic institutions are created with the consent of the people. More importantly, however, democracy can only remain stable and in power when the leader continues to act with the greater good’s interests in mind. People have always been at odds regarding what democracy truly constitutes, a tension that has increased since the end of the Cold War. Still, even with its systemic flaws, it is commonly believed that this form of government is the best model and that there is no better alternative. However, it is important to address shortcomings as democracy is not stagnant; in the context of democracy as a society, a political body, and an economy, it has inevitably changed over time. 

One such area that requires attention is the perceived value of nationalism. Research scholar Ghia Nodia describes how nationalism and democracy coexist in almost a permanent state of tension. According to Nodia, Western social values often teach us to see democracy as the hero and nationalism as the villain, while in reality, this is not necessarily the case. Nationalism, through a political lens, can be perceived as necessary in that it instills its people with a sense of patriotism, which a successful government requires in a specific class of people: the military. However, as Spohn and Sauer explore in “War zeal, nationalism, and unity in Christ” during World War I, even German Protestant theologians and church leaders were exceptionally susceptible to nationalism and war zeal, resulting in evangelical missions that spurred the cause for war among the masses. Religion evidently plays a large role in the proliferation of nationalist views. This seems plausible in some instances because religion as a doctrine, often teaches its devotees that tradition is the greatest principle and that their actions must seek to preserve this virtue, including a country’s identity. However, this cannot be generalized to all religions because of the differing interpretations of texts by priests or religious leaders.

Although nationalism is integral to the internal fabric of a political body, more often than not, it leads to its destruction. It is important to consider what type of nationalism is present when analyzing its effects on a specific country, however. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically focusing on the Democratic Republic of Congo, nationalism spread as a political tool. The standing government at the time used nationalism to suppress the opposition and sideline divisions among the citizenry that would otherwise pose a threat to the leadership’s power. This explains much of the instability in the region, the constant riots, and overall civil unrest, because artificially-created nationalism by the ruling class was pushed onto the people instead of “achieved nationalism,” which is rather realized by the people on their own through a sense of pride and trust for their representatives. Achieved nationalism then seems like it would be the most successful in maintaining democracy.

Nonetheless, this is not always true. In addition to religion, the changing desires of the electorate is a driving force behind the formation of nationalist perspectives. In particular, India is a region that has time and time again seen the repercussions of this prevailing attitude. Indians, tired of being oppressed by their British conquerors, sought independence from Britain to be able to have their well-deserved freedom--freedom to shape their own institutions, their own industries, their own national life. They achieved this by uniting together to throw the foreign forces out, resulting in an increased sense of nationalism. 

However, this nationalism quickly deteriorated into polarization with the conflict between the Hindu majority and Muslim minority escalating to the point of division, an ensuing trauma that continues today. The rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Indian politics can be attributed to nationalism. When Modi first came into the public eye, he portrayed himself as a man of the people, a common man with a modest background as a tea vendor at a local train station. His rallying calls to put India first, to rebuild the economy by providing greater infrastructure and jobs, appealed to voters of all classes. He represented the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), or the Indian People’s Party, a name which itself reflects an ideology that prizes the collective people. Through this image, he was able to champion himself as a man of the people, in contrast to his opponents, and easily won with a sweeping majority of the votes. Modi’s popularity among the people has allowed him to seemingly get away with just about anything. Most recently, Indian citizens and their belief in Modi were tested when the tensions in Kashmir escalated. By unjustifiably removing Article 370, which would remove special protections for the regions, Modi put not only India at stake, but also the people of Jammu-Kashmir, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, as well as the very meaning of democracy. This has become such a contentious topic between the Western world denouncing Modi’s actions and his partisans praising him. When I conducted interviews with my own family in India, all of them said they support Modi, claiming that he is simply helping the region of Kashmir, which had been torn politically, economically, and socially ever since its creation, and that India has the right to take over and protect the Hindu minority in the area. In their eyes, at the same time, Western media portrays a different story: that Modi is akin to an authoritarian, taking land from the people of Kashmir like the British did in India. 

There are countless examples of populism devolving into dictatorships, such as those seen in Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela where the concentration of power in the hands of the elected leaders and their changing behaviors slowly diminish the people’s trust in democracy. Mirroring Modi’s election, these respective candidates won in the first place because they seemed to be “the people’s men.” Not fulfilling these promises leaves people unhappy and creates a class that is ripe for the revolution, a truth that these leaders clearly ignore or simply do not care about. In fact, this was one of the pressures that culminated in the Arab Spring uprisings. Due to the people’s discontent with their government, there was an overwhelming sense of anti-nationalism, which “propelled discourse about liberation from an oppressive regime,” and the lack of nationalism also leads to factionalism within the regional states as well, leading to a shift in power from the federal to the state governments, in turn harming the ruling body itself. 

These rulers are able to methodically rise to power and stay in power by ridding themselves of any possible threats by first deeming that the opposition is misrepresenting the leader’s actions and branding them with the trait of anti-nationalism. Using the bully pulpit as a medium to disseminate false and spiteful views, the leader traps the uneducated and uninformed, who fall into a mobocracy that becomes increasingly polarized, with one side supporting the leader while the other protests and seeks to promote change. This is seen most evidently with the current democratic state of the United States. Donald Trump, similar to Modi, was able to attain his presidency by appealing to the common, working-class people of American society, by promising jobs, a better economy, among others. He works under a false image of devotion to the country; rather, as Lepore writes, patriotism is animated by love, nationalism by hatred. 

Once the president or leading governing body has planted the seeds for nationalism, however, it is natural to ponder as to who sows these seeds and ensures the views prosper. Inevitably, because democracy is authorized by the consent of the people, even a nationalist leader would not be able to maintain a stable polity without their support. This is where social media comes in. When Twitter was founded in 2006, it was meant to be a platform of communication and expression, a way to stay up to date with issues whether on a person or a global level. Originally, it was just used by the common person and not given much attention by the government or its agencies. But things quickly changed with Twitter becoming a medium for hate speech. Note that it is not a question here as to whether or not hate speech should be allowed, but rather here the focus is on its relation to nationalism as a result of the discourse of the time. The propagation of such hate groups is often linked with physical attacks against minorities. Although hate speech and hate crime do not always have a direct correlation, speech often serves as a catalyst due to its sometimes incendiary and dividing nature; this is seen with how white supremacist groups, such as the Ku Klux Klan, operate with a select group of people instigating and stirring the disgruntled masses. According to statistics released by the FBI, it is clear that hate crimes are seeing no decline as in 2017 alone, over eight-thousand hate crime offenses were reported. These groups continue the cycle that began with the President all in a fake sham of nationalism. 

Again, it is necessary to consider why countries value a degree of nationalism.  As expressed in Nationalism and Democracy:

“Patriotic celebration of such things may grate on the sensibilities of individualistic liberals, but it offers no threat to ethnic minorities. On the contrary, a custom of tolerance for minorities can also become a point of national pride, as it has in the case of many Americans or citizens of other long-established democratic nations.”

In this sense, a celebration of diversity warrants feelings of nationalism. Yet, it is difficult not to find these words ironic. In a country founded on the back of immigrants and minorities, people of color are still discriminated against, with those with darker skin facing the most backlash. In addition to being underrepresented in public office and Congress, minorities feel unheard by their president. For Americans to truly be able to feel a sense of national pride in terms of their treatment of minorities then, they must take a step back and reflect on whether or not America is the same for all, or if it is a living nightmare for others. 

Countries such as the United States and India, now through its pursuits in Kashmir, as well as other well-developed and developing democracies, continue fearlessly in their endless goals of nation-building. However, given the assessment of the existence of nationalism and other autocratic tendencies, the first step is for these countries to pay greater attention and focus their political and sociological research and studies towards this exact question. Then, once the root of the problem is identified along with any other possible factors, policymakers must act to find a solution after which they can report to their officials. Convening in a national conference, global leaders can then discuss how to better the circumstances and decide whether or not compromise is necessary. While this background work is being done to widen our knowledge on the issue, if a country must intervene in the affairs of another, to help form or stabilize democracy, the least harmful method would be to station a few troops in the region--this way the country can maintain indirect control without doing anything that will cause harm in the long run. But until then, one must keep a vigilant eye on the upcoming United States 2020 presidential election.

A Pattern of Apartheid: Human Rights Violations Against India’s ‘Untouchables’

The international community is no stranger to discrimination that is largely driven by ideological, racial, and social differences. Rooted in long-standing Hindu tradition, India’s caste system is a form of social stratification in Southeast Asia. Despite its longevity, the system is inherently discriminatory and unjust, specifically towards the Dalit people, India’s original inhabitants who gave themselves the name in the 1930s. However, despite banning the practice of “untouchability” in 1950, inequality is still perpetuated in India through the caste system. Even with India’s efforts to slowly stop using the ancient system, the Dalit people specifically suffer immense human rights abuses as a result of the caste system’s hierarchical structure and regressive ideology; these violations include freedom from violence, the right to health, and equal treatment before the law.

To understand the extent of these social, economic, and political abuses, the Dalit case will be compared with that of the infamous South African Apartheid; in both of these situations, extensive human rights abuses were performed through a system of segregation. Ultimately, as a result of the similar nature of the two cases, the following question is proposed: is there a valid case to be made that the blatant violence, discrimination, and abuses against the Dalit people equates to apartheid? When examined closer, the research reveals that the widespread and systematic discrimination against the Dalits, as a result of the social caste system, has indeed led to social, economic, and political human rights violations that mirror those of South Africa under apartheid.

Racial Discrimination: South African Apartheid

To better understand the human rights abuses against the Dalits, it is essential to examine violations that took place during the South African Apartheid. The apartheid movement in the mid to late 1900s, enforced by the National Party government, was an ideology that called for the separation of the various racial groups in South Africa; it was a social system that sought to marginalize and oppress the “non-whites.” The legalization and subsequent implementation of this ideology resulted in massive, institutionalized human rights violations. The most identifiable violations were South Africa’s unwillingness to uphold freedom from violence, the right to an adequate standard of living, and equality under the law.

The freedom from violence, according to Article 5 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), states that “No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment of punishment.” During the apartheid era, South Africa violated this international human rights norms through the use of police brutality as a response to political demonstrations. For example, in the case of the black township of Sharpeville in 1960, the police fired into a crowd of unarmed black protesters, killing at least 67 and injuring more than 180 people. Additionally, as a result of the protests and the government’s various terrorism laws, most resistance leaders were captured and executed a year later. The 1967 Terrorism Act, in particular, was a crucial piece of legislation that gave immense power to the police, assisting the government’s battle against “terrorists” by allowing the police to target specific individuals who resisted the apartheid system. However, it is crucial to understand that while this law was crafted as an anti-terrorism law, it essentially allowed the government to become “an instrument of terror” themselves against the non-white citizens of South Africa.

The apartheid era also saw a violation of the international human right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of [oneself], as defined by Article 25 of the UDHR.  During apartheid, hospitals were segregated by race. While whites enjoyed pristine, clean, and functional institutions, black health facilities were subjected to underfunding along with a lack of proper resources and staff. Furthermore, the use of the migrant labor system, which drew black African men to the cities for jobs while prohibiting them to reside in “white” urban areas, also violated the right to health. These men were forced to live in nearby rural areas where there was inadequate access to clean water, electricity, or emergency services. Ultimately, the South African government prevented black South Africans from acquiring proper housing, sufficient food and drink, and satisfactory health services, thus demonstrating that this apartheid sought to discriminate in all different aspects of life.  

Lastly, there were widespread and systemic violations of the right to equality before the law where all “are entitled to equal protection against any discrimination.” The entire system of apartheid manifests this violation, as the granting of rights, privileges, and protections by the state was primarily based on racial categorizations. This act of separation by the white supremacist government was inherently a violation of the right to equality, as being black automatically eliminated an individuals’ rights and opportunities. In the end, all of these human rights violations are consequences of apartheid’s racial segregation; by separating the various racial groups in South Africa, the white minority was able to implement an ideology of inequality and discrimination that privileged one group and systematically abused the other.

Social Segregation: The Dalits

There are many similarities between the racial segregation in Africa and the system of caste oppression in India. India has had a long history of casteism, and even in the current era of rapid modernization, the Dalit people in particular still remain outcasts with little social mobility. Deemed to be part of the lowest caste and the “untouchables” of society, the Dalits continue to suffer from discrimination and oppression due to the structure of the caste system. While the cultural and historical contexts of India and South Africa are remarkably different, there are numerous parallels between the human rights abuses committed against the Dalits and black South Africans under institutionalized apartheid.

As mentioned previously, the Dalit people face immense discrimination and violence as a direct result of their birth status, much like how the brutality against black individuals in South Africa was caused by their race. In investigating the violation of the right to freedom from violence, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) found that “de facto segregation of Dalits persists” as a result of the systemic abuse, including torture, extrajudicial killing, and sexual assault against the population. This violence is often carried out by the police and government, who face little to no consequences for the actions taken.

This violation of the right to be free from violence is not a new phenomenon, as the Dalit people have faced caste-based violence and discrimination for decades. However, as India modernizes and Dalit protest movements begin to grow, violence has subsequently increased as well. For example, between 1995 and 1997, CERD found that 90,925 cases that were registered with the police were designated “crime and atrocities” against scheduled castes, most notably the Dalits due to their low social status. Furthermore, because the Dalits are often hesitant to report the crimes, or simply unable to due to police intimidation and the possible ramifications of reporting, the actual numbers and statistics may be much higher.

Further, research shows the full extent of the abuse. As CERD’s Shadow Report detailed, 58,000 cases between 2001 and 2002 were registered under the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Act, legislation that makes it a crime to abuse the Dalit population and the tribal community. These abuses, because they are widespread and systematic, highlight the prevalence of the issue, as the perpetrators of these crimes are both state and private actors. In a close similarity to the race-based South Africa Apartheid, the hatred towards a particular group, the Dalits, pervades Indian society simply due to their social status in the caste system.

There are also parallels between the violations of the international right to a standard of adequate living; the Dalits suffer from a lack of access to sufficient healthcare services, as well as poor working conditions that result in an increased risk of health-related issues. Akin to the results of the South African migrant labor system, the state intentionally limits Dalit access to government resources and facilities, as well as diminishes economic opportunities to obtain such services due to extreme poverty. Separated facilities such as bathrooms and temples are determined based on one’s caste placement, and the Dalits tend to receive the poorer and less efficient resources if they are guaranteed any rights at all.

In the rural areas where much of the Dalit population resides, residents also suffer from poor electricity, sanitation issues, and few basic amenities that are necessary to survival, such as access to water and adequate housing. The extent of this rights’ violations can be seen in the government response to the Gujarat state earthquake in 2001; it was declared one of the worst natural disasters in India’s history with over one million people left homeless, many of which were Dalits. In the wake of this disaster, the Dalits were victims of aid corruption, poor rehabilitation efforts, and insufficient access to basic amenities like food, water, and housing. Meanwhile, upper-caste populations enjoyed far better shelters, adequate access to aid, and luxuries post-disaster.

The extensive restrictions and actions taken to inhibit and degrade the physical and mental well-being of the Dalit people are a result of India’s governmental structure and the Dalits limited participation and access to positions in the government. In 2014, former Prime Minister Narendra Modi won on a platform promising economic growth and job creation for all, which resulted in tremendous support by millions of the Dalit population. However, political turmoil and the continued alienation of Dalits led to a sense of mistrust in Modi, and in April 2018, hundreds of Dalits held protests in response to a Supreme Court ruling pushing for the implementation of a thirty-year law that punishes atrocities against Dalits despite Modi’s promise of social development. Furthermore, there have also been changes to the Reservation Policy in India’s constitution, a policy that concerns caste-based quotas for government and university jobs. With the changes, there will be a decrease in the number of university jobs available to Dalits. Overall, despite holding office for five years, Modi’s efforts to bridge the gap between castes were met with little enthusiasm by Dalits, who see his actions as political shows that fail to address the real issues of segregation and discrimination, although these issues were present even before Modi took office.

Moreover, furthering this social divide is the rising Hindu nationalism across the country with a focus on “economic protectionism and increased border security,” especially in regards to the influx of Rohingya refugees. Even though he advocated for development for all peoples, Modi’s political ideology centered around increasing the sense of nationalism, shockingly similar to the actions of other right-wing nationalist movements in other areas of the world, including the United States and Europe. Modi’s nationalist goals entailed defining India’s national identity in terms of the Hindu identity, something that much of the Dalit population struggle with as many are converting to Buddhism as a means of defying upper caste mistreatment.

Things may be looking up slightly, however, as India elected new Prime Minister Ram Nath Kovind, a member of the “untouchable” Dalit population in June of 2017. While Kovind is not the first Dalit to be president, what is surprising is that the Bharatiya Janata Party, a predominantly upper caste party, backed his nomination. Yet, despite the limited political development in India, Dalits continue to face immense restrictions regarding social mobility and integration, as caste groups still play a key role in the existence of the divide between Dalits and non-Dalits.

Lastly, in association with the violation of Article 7 of the UDHR guaranteeing a right to equality before the law, the very nature of the caste system perpetuates an unjust and regressive-like ideology that mimics the effects of the racial discrimination in South Africa and ultimately characterizes the Dalits as “lesser humans.” This right, which also grants “equal protection against any discrimination,” is extensively violated. The practice of separating groups into different caste levels based on their social status at birth, a factor they cannot control, is inherently unequal and discriminatory.

Both the Dalit situation and the South African Apartheid share numerous violations in common, the greatest is the fact that race and caste discrimination have been used to divide society into groups, privileging some over others, and that one’s worth is based on uncontrollable factors, namely their race and social status at birth. In both societies, people are born into a role categorized as “undesirable” by those in power, whether that be black or Dalit, that permits discrimination and human rights violations because it was socially acceptable to do so with each respective country.

Conclusion

Discrimination and oppression are not limited to certain countries or time periods. In the case of human rights, violations are widespread and often are repeated throughout history. In South Africa, apartheid was one of the most devastating and impactful rulings of the twentieth century; characterized by riots, violence, and a system of racial segregation, it endured for over fifty years before the formation of a democratic government in 1994. For the Dalit people, the abuse and social exclusion resulting from the caste system continues to this day. While their situation has not garnered international attention in the same way that South Africa did, the comprehensive research into the same three human rights violations within both cases is enough evidence to equate the combined social, economic, and political exclusion of the Dalits to subtle but visible apartheid. Ultimately, the separation of groups based on social status and caste level in India mirrors the separation of groups based on race in South Africa, thus allowing for the use of the label “apartheid” in reference to the Dalits; both are discriminatory policies that result from a system rooted in segregation.

This continued apartheid-like ideology of repression and alienation in India, in accordance with the South African segregation, merely demonstrates the perpetuation of hierarchies, privilege, discrimination, and marginalization in what would be thought of as two very different parts of the world.

Mumbai’s Slums: The Positives and Negatives

Mumbai, the capital of India’s state of Maharashtra, is a global city that is growing every day. It resides on the western coast of India and is comprised of several islands. It is a city full of rich history, including the infamous colonization by the British in 1924. Today it attracts many tourists, who enjoy seeing the beautiful architecture of sites such as Gateway of India and the Elephanta Caves. Though Mumbai is ever-growing, it has dire issues pertaining to its divide between the rich and the poor living in slum communities. Residents of these slum communities, which are often referenced as “slum dwellers,” make up 52% of Mumbai’s population. Mumbai’s slums represent India’s issues pertaining to overpopulation, access to drinking water, pollution, land space, poverty, unemployment, health, and waste disposal. According to Sunil Kumar Karn, Shigeo Shikura, and Hideki Harada’s Living Environment and Health of Urban Poor, India’s definition of slums is “areas where buildings are unfit for human habitation; or are by reason of dilapidation, overcrowding, design of buildings, narrowness of streets, lack of ventilation, light or sanitary facilities or any combination of these factors, are detrimental to safety, health, or morals.” The poor infrastructure of slum communities in Mumbai affect other alarming issues, particularly the access to water, overcrowding, and spread of illness amongst residents. These three factors play a role together in creating a negative effect on the growth of these areas. Though these issues are significant and must be resolved immediately, we also need to acknowledge that Mumbai’s slums are often painted in a negative light. Slum communities in Mumbai and across India obtain a sense of independence and community of their own and can sustain themselves. Though the government has not yet implemented effective solutions for the infrastructure of Mumbai’s slums, there can be a brighter future if government deregulation, overseeing, and funding of redevelopment projects are put in place.

The infrastructure of Mumbai slums affects water access for its residents. In Mumbai, slum communities are categorized as either notified or non-notified. According to Ramnath Subbaraman and Sharmila L Murthy’s The Right to Water in the Slums of Mumbai, India, notified slums are recognized by the government and “are entitled to receive security of land tenure, which means that the people who live in them cannot be arbitrarily evicted.” Residents living in notified slums have access to city services and its water supply. Non-notified slums, however, have more difficulty accessing piped water, electricity, public transportation, and other government services. This is because the residents of non-notified slums do not have property rights over their homes, therefore they cannot access municipal water supplies. Almost half of Mumbai’s slums are non-notified, so this clearly impacts a large portion of the population. To become notified, residents must show that they have lived in a slum that settled on state or city owned land before 2000. Mumbai slums owned by the central government do not apply to the notified category despite being settled for decades. For example, the Mumbai slum Kaula Bandar that resides on central government land was considered a non-notified slum despite its existence there for over 50 years.

In Mumbai, there is a chlorinated central water supply that is administered by the government. Residents in non-notified slums have not been able to legally connect to this central water supply system, so they must illegally tap into the city’s water pipes, which creates a risk of cross-contamination. Each year, 30-60% of households get affected by water-related diseases each year, and two-thirds of those households are children. And, because residents don’t boil the water before consuming it, illnesses continue to spread. During the summer, water is often contaminated with Escherichia Coli, which means that the water had been mixed with feces. People residing in non-notified slums were forced to buy water from street vendors, which cost forty times more than government provided water that residents in notified slums paid for. Each person accessed to less than 20 liters of water per day, which is under the minimum consumption level needed for basic hygiene. Unclean water causes diarrheal diseases in children and increases their mortality rate. In addition, the infant mortality rate in non-notified slums such as Kaula Bandar was more than twice than notified slums and 30% more than the rest of Mumbai. Therefore, the inability to access safe drinking water because of property rights and government policy had a major effect on the health of residents.

In 2014, an organization called Pani Haq Samiti successfully pressured the city government give access to Mumbai’s water supply to non-notified slums. They achieved this by looking at the Constitution of India, which states that every human must have the right to water. The Bombay High Court also referenced international human law, which states that it is a human right to have access to safe drinking water and sanitation. The Bombay High Court additionally stated that having property rights of a slum should not determine whether you have the right to water or not. Though this new policy is now implemented, there are still issues surrounding it. For example, the policy states that it is not necessary for the non-notified slums to pay the same price as the other slum communities, and it is not necessary for individual homes in slums to have their own tap connections. In addition, the government wants to completely remove non-notified slums, which would not only take numerous years, but also would incur forced displacement. The Bombay High Court does not have a say in central government land, which is where many of the non-notified slums reside in. The poor infrastructure of the sewage does not help either. According to Sunil Kumar Karn, Shigeo Shikura, and Hideki Harada’s Living Environment and Health of Urban Poor, “In the slums, typically a small narrow gutter (mostly open or partially covered) is found between the rows of dwellings that serves for all types of drainage including the sewage water. Since such drains are also not technically designed and laid out, they often get clogged and water spills over.” Therefore, the infrastructure and the new policy doesn’t particularly solve the problem of access to drinking water or the spread of water-related diseases in slum communities.

Aside from the fact that the lack of infrastructure and policy affects the access to water and health of the residents, housing conditions also contributes to the prevention of growth of these communities. Historically, housing has been an issue in India for over 150 years. It was furthered by Britain’s colonial administration, which did not care about the living conditions of Indians. There has been an analysis of India’s Five-Year Plans from 1951 to 2017. According to Cheryl Young’s Accommodating Housing in India: Lessons from Development Capital, Policy Frames, and Slums, India’s five-year plans prior to 1985 hadn’t mentioned slums and housing together with economic development and social equity. The 1985-1990 five-year plan was the first plan that had “strong human rights/rights-based discourse in the case for housing.” (57) The most recent five-year plan (2012-2017) mentioned that the affordable housing problem is initiated by a “demand-supply gap.” The government created a plan where they would increase affordability by lowering land prices through land readjustment and floor space index. However, there was no specific reference to slums. Throughout the years, projects by NGO’s, private developers, land-owners, and the Mumbai government have endeavoured to redevelop slums. Most of these projects required the demolishing of these communities and building medium-rise apartments over them. However, many of these initiatives were never completed. Efforts ever since 1980 by state appointed committees, such as the Moghe and Awale committee, have promoted policies to improve housing slum housing conditions. In 1991 and 1995, the Slum Redevelopment Scheme and the Slum Rehabilitation Scheme were suggested as well. However, according to Vinit Mukhija’s Squatters as Developers?: Slum Redevelopment in Mumbai, “Previous attempts at increasing the allowed intensity of development in the city were criticized and not implemented because such changes were believed to lead to an increase in the population and, therefore, more pressure on its infrastructure and environmental resources.” Despite the enormous barrier and gaping fear that overpopulation creates for the idea of redeveloping slums, all parties seem to accept the idea of redeveloping, including landowners, private developers, the state government, and slum dwellers themselves. Redeveloping projects would be a positive action that would increase profits for landowners and private developers while making Mumbai look more attractive as a city. To the government, it would mean a higher property tax collection as well.

However, there would also be many risks involved to redevelopment. The property values would have to be high enough to benefit the residents and compensate the landowners and private developers. If property values were to decrease during the construction process, it would negatively affect all parties, especially the slum dwellers because that is where they live. In addition, slum dwellers wouldn’t have a voice in these projects because they are not the ones investing in them. Those who would have a say would be the private/public sectors and non-profits organizations. In an attempt to make projects work, the government prohibited itself from profiting off redevelopment. However, private developers were still asking for financial support from the local and state government because of the high costs and, as Vinit Mukhija says, the “lack of formal institutional support for development (construction) finance.” This would initiate a variety of arguments between the multiple parties, which would further increase the risk of redeveloping projects because of their uncertainty. It is additionally difficult because of the ‘irregular’ structure of the slums themselves. According to Vinit Mukhija’s Squatters as Developers?: Slum Redevelopment in Mumbai, it would be hard to provide basic infrastructure because of the strange layout of the present slums:

The physical structure of their properties can make it difficult for the slum-dwellers to capitalize on the potentially high land values, without some form of change in the physical structure of their properties through land assembly or land readjustment. Moreover, the city’s slum-dwellers are likely to have already built-up their properties with floor areas equal to, or more than, what the legal development rights allow.

In addition, there is a lack of financing for construction and that slums are considered to be ‘risky collateral’ by investors. Lastly, pre-sales, where the buyers would finance the construction in advance, would be tough because of the fear of uncertainty and the lack of institutional funding for construction.  Because of all of these aspects together, there is a lack of attempt by the government and developers to try to improve living conditions of slum dwellers by reforming their homes.

Despite these dire issues, slums should not be seen as all negative. Slum communities, such as the famous Dharavi, create a sense of an independent community. As of 2017, it has been recorded that 700,000 people reside within the 0.8 square miles of Dharavi. According to Sunil Kumar Karn, Shigeo Shikura, and Hideki Harada’s Living Environment and Health of Urban Poor, “… Dharavi have more affection for their present social life and the type of employment, which they fear would be lost otherwise. Environmental problems appear tolerable to them when compared with the degree of social security, their present habitation offered." In other words, despite the problems that this slum community faces, residents still appreciate the unique social networks they create within the area. However, Feargus O’Sullivan’s in In Mumbai, a Push to Recognize the Successes of ‘Informal’ Development states that a Dubai-based firm is trying to demolish this slum and rebuild over it. The source states that “similar redevelopment schemes in other Indian cities have often smashed the heart out of neighborhoods, destroying social and cultural support networks without meaningfully improving conditions for displaced residents or building something sustainable and vibrant.” Dharavi additionally contains about 67 slum communities and holds a variety of identities. Its first settlers were tanners and potters who were part of different communities of numerous religions and caste affiliations. This community was made up of migrants from the center of the city as well as from rural areas of India. According to Jan Nijman’s India’s Urban Future: Views From the Slum, 70% of the population are Hindus (of a variety of sub castes, or jatis), 20% are Muslims, and 10% are Christian. Many residents come from states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh. Despite its diversity and prominent community, Dharavi is ‘untouched’ by the government. It is also difficult for outsiders to determine whether something is a public of private space. The lack of space and over-crowding creates a communal identity because no one has real privacy, which promotes social interaction and networking. Therefore, residents’ identities are ‘place-based’ and communal. In addition, 70% of residents say that the most valued aspect of this area is “community.” Jan Nijman’s India’s Urban Future: Views From the Slum states that “venturing outside their community and its territorial confines is often accompanied by apprehension, stress, and feelings of insecurity." Slum dwellers feel as if they are ‘outsiders’ despite being within a city, which strengthens their own community identity and communal feeling of insecurity. After conducting a study, 93% of residents in Dharavi say they aren’t going to move, and, interestingly, 12% even put their neighborhoods in the slum category. 62% of residents said that their lives improved within the past couple of years. Despite numerous problems pertaining to slums such as Dharavi, residents are satisfied with their lifestyles because they have the social networks to support them.

Though poor infrastructure and negative representation creates a significant barrier for them, slum dwellers can create community identities because they all simultaneously work to survive. According to Laura B. Nolan’s Slum Definitions in Urban India: Implications for the Measurement of Health Inequalities, “A slum is often not recognized and addressed by the public authorities as an integral or equal part of the city." Many sources have stated that the Indian government and media paint slums in a negative picture, not even considering them a part of the city. And, to a certain degree, a slum cannot be involved with the city because it simply can’t afford it. Laura B. Nolan continues to state that “…poor living conditions like those found in slums likely have substantial adverse consequences for productivity and human capital development. Slum residents, for example, spend significant time and resources obtaining water and waiting to use public toilets." In other words, because residents in slums are caught up with trying to survive and sustain themselves, they participate less in the city’s society and its labor force. In that sense, Mumbai’s slums have communities of their own because they are all going through the same struggle. According to Jan Nijman’s India’s Urban Future: Views From the Slum, “Cities are shaped not only by large-scale structural forces but also from the ground up, on a daily basis, by city dwellers along with their mindsets and aspirations in addition to the institutions that organize their lives." However, they are viewed negatively and are seen as more of a “burden on the city” because they are the result of overpopulation, poverty, and extreme migration from rural areas of India. In other words, people see slums as a real living example of what is going wrong in their city. The fact that many of the slums’ residents are from rural parts of India promotes the sense of community within their urban neighborhoods. In fact, many of slum dwellers migrate to the city to work but continue to keep their connections and homes in their rural villages. Migrants bring social and cultural affiliations, traditions, cultural identities, and family ties to that of their rural villages. This creates a strong connection between the urban and rural parts of India because slum dwellers continue their rural lifestyles among urban settlers.

India’s lack of job opportunities surprisingly strengthens the sense of community and economy of slums. According to Jan Nijman’s India’s Urban Future: Views From the Slum, India does not invest enough in manufacturing. Indian Manufacturing firms are quite small, where 84% of them employ less than 50 workers, unlike China, which is only 25%. In addition, India invests more in other countries such as the India-based TATA Group, which is the largest single employer in the United Kingdom. This company does not benefit India directly or increase job growth in their own country. Indian cities such as Mumbai don’t invest enough in manufacturing because the service sector is more prominent. However, jobs in services tend to give higher pay to highly educated workers or poor pay to poorly educated workers. This creates the large gap between the rich and poor in Mumbai, where the middle class is non-existent. There is no creation of jobs in the manufacturing sector, which would help Mumbai slum dwellers. Mumbai’s slums are a representation of unemployed former agricultural and industrial workers and the lack of opportunity they had back home in their rural villages. And, again, there is the lack of institutional support. There is a lack of formality of planning on how to fix problems in slums. Because there is a lack of investment towards slums as well as an absence of employment and production, slums look to themselves and create their own economies. Slums create a form of “resilience,” and Jan Nijman states “The idea is that certain slums evolve (arguably out of necessity) into a form of economic and social self-organization that goes well beyond the slum as a mere labor reservoir of residential space." Slum communities are sustaining themselves by creating jobs out of the need to survive.

Dharavi is, again, a prominent example of the ‘slum economy.’ Though it has its overcrowding issue, which would cause high unemployment, it manages to hold down its own economy. According to Jan Nijman’s India’s Urban Future: Views From the Slum, Dharavi holds approximately 1,200 manufacturing units and 8,000 shops. Trucks go in and out delivering goods to outside sources. Almost 80% of heads of the households are employed, and 83% of those unemployed are either retired or not looking for work. 29% of the heads of the households are self-employed, and most of them operate their manufacturing or retailing businesses within Dharavi. Owners of businesses also live inside Dharavi, as well as 95% of their workers. Not only is the employment high, but the job stability is as well. People keep their jobs for an average of 18 years. There is a wide variety of businesses that run in this slum economy, including in garments, food, leather products, recycling/chemicals/plastics, pottery, machinery, building materials, jewelry, and printing. These businesses create a sense of community because certain economic activities are associated with specific communities within Dharavi. All the professions cluster together in order to share the same spaces, and this creates communal identity as well. For example, Hindu men are typically leather workers, potters, or jewelers. Most companies have operated in Dharavi for an average of 15 years. The second most valued aspect by residents in Dharavi is its location and the access to jobs, schools, and hospitals. Therefore, slums are not actually areas that are solely filled with unemployed people; instead, they are extremely active and significantly contribute income in Mumbai.

Effective government policy is necessary to create opportunity to improve living situations in Mumbai's slums. Firstly, the city needs more government intervention and overseeing. Secondly, slum dwellers need to have a voice and the ability to make decisions on these projects. There would be an incentive for slum dwellers to continue to demand for redevelopment if there is a possibility “of creating property assets that have a larger area, are more marketable and have higher property values.” In terms of the local government, there should be more deregulation. They should promote more flexibility in project conceptualization and building plans, as well as remove certain building code requirements and land use plans. This would spark more ‘community entrepreneurialism,’ which would not only build the community, but support the idea that slum dwellers themselves can rebuild their communities rather than having outsiders coming in making decisions on their neighborhoods. There should also be agreements put in place by the government between the developers and the slum dwellers, so the developers don’t take advantage of them, being the dwellers are most at risk when these projects are constructed. In terms of the lack of support for construction, the government must be able to fund private developers, since it is too costly for them to do it alone. In the end, redeveloping is in the best interest of slum dwellers because it doesn’t cause displacement, but rather improves their housing conditions and makes their properties more valuable. It also solves the problem of slums being depicted as outsiders. Slums dwellers would feel less vulnerable by the rest of Mumbai if it isn’t constantly seen as a negative, filthy, poverty-stricken place. To try to solve the overpopulation and overcrowding issue of slums, medium rise living could be an option. Instead of building out, developers can build up. This would also increase the value of the houses themselves. To keep from wiping out the sense of community in these slums, construction businesses and builders must incorporate cultural traditions of these areas. For example, they can incorporate the idea of the chawl, which is a single room tenement that serves as both a living and a work space. This is a tradition that has been historically established in slums and implementing something that has been integrated in their daily life for so long will maintain and continue the culture. The biggest and most fascinating characteristic of Mumbai’s slums is the ability to use a space for multiple functions. Though it may not seem like enough, the residents make it work.

In conclusion, Mumbai slums should not be seen as wastelands or places of despair. Of course, there are many problems that must be resolved such as access to safe water, sanitation, health, and environmental sustainability. We see how these problems stem from the poor infrastructure and policy-making of these communities. If the government makes a greater effort to implement policies that could help improve housing conditions in Mumbai slums, other problems such as water access and the general health of residents could improve as well. Though there are issues that need to be resolved, we also see that slums are communities that value social interaction and work together to sustain themselves and create a unique world of their own. It has been proven that they are able to maintain their communities out of the need for survival. Therefore, Mumbai slums are not as bad as India, as well as the rest of the world, think they are.

Fishers, Farmers, Craftspeople—Women: Gender in Post-Conflict Economic Reconstruction

“Api anaarakshithay” repeat the widows created by 30 years of protracted war in northern Sri Lanka. The phrase translates to ‘we lack security,’ and such security can result from expanding women’s post-conflict economic inclusion. In the post-conflict setting, populations face new challenges that are created not only by the persistence of violence, but also by limited access to resurging economies. For women, such challenges compound with changing demographics and the ensuing societal restructuring. Women enter into new roles in restructured economies, offering key opportunities to establish stable post-conflict livelihoods, yet obstacles to women’s economic access too often linger unaddressed. Without addressing such structural impediments to gender equity, any progress made towards gender parity remains acutely vulnerable to backsliding if conflict reignites. Conflicts in both Sri Lanka and the Kashmir Glacier originated in the 1980s, and women’s roles in the economies of both nations transformed throughout the nearly three decades of both conflicts’ duration. Each case demonstrates a disparate component of the challenges that women face during regions’ economic reconstruction. In Sri Lanka, discriminatory systemic structures and sexual violence create obstacles to women’s economic independence. In Jammu and Kashmir, reliance on craftsmen for training and middlemen to sell their products impede women’s success as craftspeople. Analyzing both distinct contexts provides insight into the new roles that women take on in post-conflict economies. Both case studies illustrate that the full economic empowerment of women requires resolving underlying power disparities in structures that predate conflicts. Given the duress that extended conflicts inflict on nations’ female populations, it is crucial to expand women’s economic access in order to insulate their self-sufficiency against the shock of further conflict. Women in the post conflict setting can neither be essentialized as ‘helpless victims’ nor can they be assumed to be ‘fine on their own.’ National governments and international humanitarian aid organizations must consider women’s changing roles in post-conflict economies in order to most effectively support the conflict-affected populations.

Sri Lanka

The civil war in Sri Lanka lasted from 1983 until 2009, with insurgent actors endeavoring to create an autonomous Tamil state in Sri Lanka’s north: the length of the war adds emphasis on national unity in the post-conflict setting. Despite this emphasis, such call for national unity cannot be allowed to serve as grounds to prevent the discussion of gender inequity and social change. Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese majority population and the Tamil and Muslim minority groups in the nation’s north all exhibit historical gender inequity, yet conflict between the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the Sri Lankan government permanently altered the role women play in northern Sri Lanka’s economy.

The significant number of majority-male casualties in northern Sri Lanka acted as a catalyst for more women to transition into the role of primary income generators in order to support their households. The Sri Lankan government reports that the total number of war widows in the nation is greater than 80,000, with many husbands still missing but not yet confirmed dead. Scholars in The International Journal of Human Rights explain that “war widows, female heads of households, female ex-combatants, employed women and girls are especially at risk due to their often impoverished contexts, their lack of education as a result of the war and their lack of opportunities in post-war economic reconstruction and development plans.” These war widows assume traditionally male roles in the nation’s economy to support their families, now working in the fishing and agricultural sectors at higher rates than in the prewar economy. Indeed, as elucidated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “another shift of women’s traditional to strategic roles occurred when women moved out of the domestic sphere and took on male roles in the absence of male family members; women consequently acquired more self-confidence and greater mobility and decision making powers within the family.” Such a transition in economic roles contributed to a 44 percent increase in hours worked by women in the service sector following Sri Lanka’s civil war. Troublingly, women’s transition into new sectors of the economy corresponds with 60 percent of women experiencing sexual harassment in the workplace in Sri Lanka, according to one survey in Colombo. Furthermore, upwards of 90% of women attested that they experienced sexual harassment in public spaces. This misogyny carries over to the conduct of regional government officials, who abuse their positions of power to ask women for sexual favors in exchange for services. While sexual violence may not be a direct result of the war, the predominance of men in positions of power and women’s need for self sufficiency during economic reconstruction creates conditions that inimically threaten to perpetuate such sexual violence. The combined antagonistic impacts of sexual violence and discriminatory land inheritance laws demonstrate the need for policies that address structural impediments to women’s success as they enter new roles in the post-conflict economy becomes clear.

In order to account for Sri Lankan women’s greater labor force participation, social and institutional impediments to their success must be confronted. The economic success that Sri Lanka enjoyed following the conflict’s close should not be seen as an overt success story, because structural gender inequalities remain. Women in Sri Lanka earn less than half of what men do, on average. While pay disparities are not a new challenge, the need for adequate compensation for women serving as their families’ primary income generators in the post-conflict setting is critical because “women who play multiple roles within households and society (such as cooking and carers of children and elderly) endure an opportunity cost for working outside the home for a wage,” according to Sri Lankan scholar Muttukrishna Sarvananthan. Women face additional challenges when working in the agricultural sector, resulting from inequitable inheritance laws. In Sri Lanka’s northern Jaffna province, women can control property in name only under the traditional Thesawalamai laws. In order to invest, receive loans, or sell their property, women need the written consent of a spouse – a spouse who the conflict possibly robbed them of. Additionally, when litigating disputes surrounding such property in court, women are treated as minors. Further difficulties are created due to the lack of equal economic growth across different sectors, for while Sri Lanka’s economic growth soared following the end of the civil war, 70 percent of this growth is in non-tradable sectors such as infrastructure construction. This unequal growth negatively impacts the livelihoods of women working in the agriculture and fishing sectors. Moreover, a large part of such construction is due to the heightened militarization of Sri Lanka’s north, and the expansion of the military presence often involves the military appropriating land that might have otherwise been farmed. The deep correlation between the military presence and sexual violence creates further impediments to women’s post-conflict livelihoods.

During the civil war, the use of sexual violence by both sides was prevalent, and the legacy of such violence persists in the post-conflict economy. The LTTE forcefully abducted women and girls previously both to use as human shields and for forced marriage, in addition to conscripting women as suicide bombers and combatants. The Sri Lankan military also used rape as a tactic to intimidate and procure information from the civilian populations in the north. Today, the growth of the Sri Lankan security sector continues, while its tendency towards sexual violence remains unresolved. Reports indicate that soldiers and police officers in some camps for displaced persons demand sexual favors in exchange for food and housing. Even outside of these camps, the military plays a large role in local economies, and that role in the economy prevents women from reporting sexual violence for fear that they will lose access to governmental support. Close to military bases, women report higher instances of sexual violence, and may experience societal exclusion due to the stigma attached to contact with the military, even when such contact was forced. In order to empower women to successfully manage their transition to the new role of breadwinners for families in the post-conflict setting, the government and international organizations must work to combat sexual violence and to promote growth in the economic sectors that women are primarily employed in.

Jammu and Kashmir

Conflict over control of Jammu and Kashmir exhibits both deep roots and sundry participants due to entrenched disputes surrounding territorial control. While China and India fought briefly over a portion of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, the brunt of the conflict manifested between Pakistan and India over control of the state in 1989. In the years following, intermittently flares of violence turned the region into a flashpoint, and spurred the creation of irregular military forces such as the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF). The persistence of conflict damaged the success of sectors that rely on tourism, such as the craft industry that many women are transitioning in order to generate income in the post-conflict economy.

The discord that conflict over control of Jammu and Kashmir caused in the local economy forced many women in the region to assume new roles. Akin to the situation of women in post-conflict Sri Lanka, the region now has more women than men, with numerous war widows and ‘half widows,’ whose husbands’ whereabouts remain unknown. Such demographic changes coincide with changes in traditional roles in the economy, with one researcher’s fieldwork indicating that “the conflict has caused a shift in the gender ratio in terms of employment. Women have joined the crafts work force to generate income to support their families.” After losing their husbands in conflict, many women must now assume the role of the primary breadwinner in order to support their families. Given the historical strength of the craft industry in Jammu and Kashmir, many women joined the profession following conflict-induced demographic changes. The craft industry was traditionally dominated by men, with craftsmen also primarily driving the development of new techniques in the industry. This lack of historical experience in the craft leads women to follow established techniques, creating an obstacle for women hoping to launch their own businesses. Women entering the craft industry are prone to joining pre-existing enterprises in order to learn techniques from craftsmen already in the industry, due to the lower barrier to entry required to enter the industry in such a capacity. As more women transition into the Kashmiri crafts industry, further structural impediments to their success become evident.

Chart created by Neelam Raina.

Barriers to women’s success in the post-conflict craft sector include reliance on middlemen, attitudes towards women in the workplace, and the lasting impact of the conflict on the economy. The decentralized nature of the population in Jammu and Kashmir creates difficulties for craftspeople looking to sell their wares, resulting in many craftspeople entirely relying on middlemen to sell the products they craft. These middlemen pay for craftspeople’s pieces in advance, which provides income for craftspeople in the short term, but prevents them from accumulating a catalog in the long term. Craftspeople’s lack of a catalog forces them to rely on the word of middlemen to attest to the quality of their work. Furthermore, reliance on middlemen to sell their goods robs craftspeople of control over their financial futures, placing the sustainability of their livelihood at the mercy of fluctuations in the demand for their products. Middlemen reap the majority of the profits from the work of craftspeople, for because they are removed from the market, craftspeople do not have a good measure of the true value of their work. This disparity in power is exemplified by the chart above. Beyond this, Kashmiri women must also overcome the stigmatization of their employment. Kashmiri women who work to support themselves often feel shame in doing so, and combined with the prevalent lack of education and skills training among women, this contributes to women’s frustration and psychological struggles. Craftswomen also experience stigmatization from other people, who use women’s employment as grounds to question their morality and piety. This attitude translates to limited access to important information about opportunities for economic funding and support, due to an exclusionary tendency amongst majority male regional bureaucrats. This exclusion further extends to union involvement, which results in the benefits of such union action sometimes failing to extend to women. The conflict in Jammu and Kashmir greatly diminished the tourist trade in Jammu, and thus, “notwithstanding the fact that Kashmiri arts and crafts have enjoyed worldwide fame and name, their production suffered to a large extent …” according to economists in the International NGO Journal. To successfully ensure women’s livelihoods in the post-conflict setting, they must be equitably integrated into local industries, and regional and international actors must take action to spur the growth of such industries.

Conclusion

Women’s entrance into new roles in post-conflict economies heralds an opportunity to permanently, economically empower nations’ female populations. To achieve this goal, national and international actors supporting post-conflict economic development must proactively account for obstacles to women’s economic access and focus their support on the sectors of the economy that women transition into. Economic growth does not always extend to women, given that the specific industries they join may not grow at the same rate as nation’s broader economies. Moreover, antiquated laws and social dynamics hinder women’s ability to act independently, even when serving as their families’ sole breadwinners. Sexual violence in the workplace and by government officials must be eradicated. Women must be recognized as equal participants in the industries they join. While gendered power disparities in legal systems and industry practices may predate conflicts, resolving them is crucial to enabling women to fully participate in the post-conflict economy. Finally, gender-responsive development support requires a sector-by-sector analysis of women’s new workforce participation in order to rectify existing inequalities so that future conflict cannot erode the achievement of women in post-conflict economies.

The Ganga Herself: India’s Most Critical Environmental Disaster

No river in the world is as religiously revered, as economically crucial or as devastatingly polluted as the Ganges [Ganga] River.  Former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru proudly declared that, “The Ganga, especially, is the river of India, beloved of her people, round which are intertwined her racial memories, her hopes and fears, her songs of triumph, her victories and her defeats. She has been a symbol of India’s age-long culture and civilization, ever changing, ever-flowing, Ganga.” Yet, the Ganga is sadly changing for the worst, as pollution continues to dirty the sacred waters. The personified goddess, is becoming unrecognizable with pollution levels reaching unprecedented levels. The Ganges, is arguably the most important river in the world not only because of the water supply and economic accessibility, but for the cultural significance. Ganges water is in many Hindu houses around the world and for massive pilgrimages to cities such as Varanasi or Allahabad the river is foundational to these cities themselves.

The Ganges river runs more than 1500 miles from the Himalaya mountains to the Bay of Bengal. As of 2015, the river itself supports 500 million people, and accounts for twenty-five percent of India’s water resources. The use of the river spans from Hindu religious rituals, irrigation of crops, daily water supply and a habitat for many animals. The Ganges is essential to life of many people around the world along with those who live closest to the banks of the river.

Wading Through the Waters in Varanasi

From early European visitors who encountered the murky, muddy waters to locals who bathe daily at the ghats in Varanasi, India, the cleanliness of the Ganges has always been a question. Whereas early visitors were concerned about the mud, today the level of pollution has increased dramatically that the Ganges is the fourth most polluted river in the world.

Victor Mallet, in his book, River of Life, River of Death: The Ganges and India’s Future, takes the reader on a journey on the Ganges from mouth to delta. Mallet states that it is critical to consider the massive scale that this river supports, 700 million people (a little less than the total population of Europe). With every use of the Ganges, the toxic water directly or circuitously impacts about one tenth of the world’s population. From providing much needed water supply in the irrigation of crops in Uttar Pradesh to the fish collected for consumption in West Bengal, to the daily ritual dip in cities such as Allahabad, Rishikesh or Varanasi  – when in contact with the river, a once rich resource, now can have devastating even deadly impacts.

Industrial Waste and Domestic Waste

Industrial and domestic waste are the chief culprits in polluting the Ganges River, especially in cities like Varanasi. The water is often tested in Varanasi at various places and the findings are not surprising. From industrial waste, high levels arsenic and mercury are above permissible levels, along with an array of various other poisons. Mallet reported that India has no standard for toxins found in sediment. So when testing the impact of Ganges water, the samples are compared to the international toxicity standards for drinking water, which are stricter than sediment standards but nonetheless a base comparison. Researchers found in the Ganges sediment “796 part per million of chromium and 4.7 ppm of mercury, thousands of times above the international toxicity standards for drinking water. Research done by Anand Singh and Jitendra Pandey of Banaras Hindu University found that the concentration of heavy metals only steadily increases downstream, becoming more dangerous as the river flows. In 2017,  65 percent of the water stations, that had data available, were at unsatisfactory levels. In Bihar, that number rose to 76 percent of the water tested was unsatisfactory – “with no station reporting satisfactory water quality”.

The problem: the sewage capacity for many treatment plants in Varanasi and other cities is only able to treat half of the sewage that is generated. Anil Kumar Singh, an official at the UP Pollution Control Board, stated that, ‘Treatment capacity [in Varanasi] is about a quarter of the total discharge’. The current infrastructure simply cannot handle the sheer amount of it all especially as India’s population continues to grow.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken upon himself to make cleaning the Ganges his personal mission and also divine purpose. Modi stated that, “Ma Ganga is screaming for help. She is saying, ‘There must be one of my sons who will come and pull me out of this filth’ … There are many tasks that perhaps God has set for me”. However very little has been done beyond the superficial.  While personally living in Varanasi, Prime Minister Modi has visited twice, and both times major temporary construction has occurred before his visit. The first visit in fall 2017 included the covering of the Assi river, a small river that flows into the Ganges. The Assi River is better known by locals as the Assi sewer, that is filled with high levels of plastics caught between bridges as well as so much human waste that it gives off a powerful stench. The second time, was when French President Macron visited, in Spring 2018 and Assi Ghat was completely swept, resurfaced  and even had a red carpet along the steps leading down to the river. Such superficial and surface level action is often described in India as ‘putting lipstick on a woman with a dirty sari’. Resources spent on pretending the problem does not exist but never addressing the core issues.

Who’s Doing What

The local government, central government and non-governmental organizations(NGOs) has taken action to address this issue, however, resulting in little to no progress.

Local Government

The local initiative for Clean Ganga in Varanasi reported that most change has been on superficial levels. The change that has occurred: the addition of 3,000 trash cans along the ghats, nighttime street sweeping and a garbage disposal plant, is much needed, but has been having no major impacts. The biggest change is the addition of two sewage disposal projects still in the building stages. Little progress has been seen made on any noticeable differences in the water quality, and many people feel that the condition of the water is continuously getting worse. With the end of the monsoon and increased water levels, the concentration of the pollutants is lower, but now they are just defused until the water levels lower.

Central Government

The Finance Minister, Arun Jaitely stated in the Union budget of 2018-2019 that the Central Government initiative, Namami Gange, has completed 47 of the 187, and the rest are in “various stages of execution”. The Namami Gange projects seek to address: “sewage treatment infrastructure, river surface cleaning, afforestation, industrial effluent monitoring, making villages on the banks of Ganges open defecation free, riverfront development, among others. The bulk of the projects sanctioned are sewage treatment plants”. While this governmental action is exactly what needs to happen, both local and central government are showing to be ineffective at the implementation of these programs. While the Finance Minister stated that 47 projects have been completed, data suggest otherwise. The National Mission for Clean Ganga reported that only 18 projects have been completed out of the 95 sanctioned with no project being completed in Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, and Jharkhand. Namami Gange, was launched in 2014, with 20,000 core equivalent to about 3.52 million USD allocated for the project.

Non-Governmental Organizations

The Sankat Mochan Temple started a campaign, later an organization, called the Sankat Mochan Foundation whose slogan was “not one drop of sewage”. The founder Veer Bhadra Mishra, the temple’s senior priest, was also a water engineer. Spending years lobbying politicians and government authorities to work towards addressing the problem of sewage pollution in Varanasi. Toward the end of his life, Veer became disheartened by his extraneous 40 years of campaigning and very little action done by the government. At his death in 2013, his son took over religious responsibilities as well as the foundation. While passionate about the work his father started, he continues to meet politicians in hopes of persuading them into action.      

The Sankat Mochan foundation along with an array of other NGOs have campaigned and work towards addressing the need of the cleaning of the Ganges but the little action that they do has had very little impact. The work that these NGOs have done is valuable – but ineffective. Inquiry being conducted by Fullbright researcher, Olivia Trombadore has found that the Sankat Mocha Foundation tests the water in Varanasi for an array of harmful substances, yet these recordings have done very little beyond continuing to provide evidence that pollution exists. Providing concrete data is essential in the process, but not enough work is being done.  In an interview with Vinod, a wood seller who has spent time researching pollution levels, he even stated that, “a lot of money is going into a slogan[targeting the Sankat Mochan Foundation]”.

The common theme amongst the local government, central government and NGOs, is that inaction and ineffective action is the course of action. The problem is known and solutions are in place – but why is there little to no change in the condition of the river? This answer lies in the lack of collaboration between the local government, central government and NGOs. Rather than working together, each entity focuses on one particularity. Which is resulting in the expansion of the sewer treatment plan but no simultaneous growth to the infrastructure of the sewage lines. Resulting in the potential of more sewage to be treated but falls short when crumbling infrastructure makes it impossible for the sewage to even reach the treatment plant.

Solutions

A local solution for Varanasi could be the addition of simple programs such as the publishing of data and informing the public about the dire state of the Ganges. With renown Banaras Hindu University, combining resources could be both a project for the university and further inform the public. Free water testing for households with questionable water sources is another implementation that would help improve the community with little investment done by the Sankat Mochan Foundation.      

The Central Government needs to simply better implement and accountability to the programs they have allocated funds to as well as sanctioned. An alternative solution was offered in March of 2017, when Indian High Court of Uttarakhand state declared the Ganges and Yamuna river legal status as people . It was believed that giving the rivers rights would serve in helping conserve and protect the sacred waters. However, just four months later, the Indian Supreme Court determined that the cause was legally unsustainable. On October 11, 2018, G.D. Agrawal, a renown Indian environmental professor, engineer and activist, who dedicated his life to the cause of the Ganga, died after a four month hunger strike. Agrawa’s self-sacrifice was an attempt to pressure the Indian government to take immediate action to rescue the Ganges by writing a list of demands to PM Modi. A governmental minister was sent to meet Agrawal; he refused give up his fast and his demands were not met.

International solutions have been seen in 2014  Kyoto-Varanasi partner city agreement in which the city of Varanasi, India and Kyoto, Japan cultural exchange as well as the mingling of local university and solutions to environmental problems and cultural preservation with development. The main intention of turning Varanasi into a 21st city that maintains the deep historical traditions. A major focus was the implementation of Japanese water cleaning technology to be introduced and used in Varanasi. Little evidence of this has been seen in the impact of the partner city agreement.

The most damaging part of all this information is how few Indians understand what is happening each time they turn on the faucet or buy vegetables at the local markets. The degree and level that pollution is at, especially in the context of the Ganges, is practically invisible to the public. The information is not hidden, rather the information is not often sought out by the general populous. India is a classist society, those who are being impacted the most, the poor, do not have water filters in their house, regularly bathe, wash clothes and dishes in the Ganges and are the ones who do not have the accessibility to the information they desperately need. Information that could save their life. Pollution of the Ganges is as momentous as the mountains in which the river comes from, but is on the verge of becoming an environmental massacre.

Demonetization in India and the Misuse of Shock Economics

Last November, this column discussed the potential effects of the demonetization of Indian banknotes. However, the article was written while the shock of the initial announcement was still fresh and could only report what was known at the time, providing background information regarding the scale of Indian black money and offering quick glances at things to look out for in the near future. Now that the old 500 and 1, 000 rupee (₹)banknotes have officially ceased to be considered legal tender as of December 30th, an update to the initial story seems necessary.

Modi’s “Surgical Strike” on India’s Black Money Problem

Originally, the suddenness of demonetization was justified on the grounds that it would deny those hoarding black money (money acquired through illegal or semi-legal means) a chance to launder their dirty cash ahead of time. Deemed a “surgical strike” by its proponents, demonetization was billed as a way of leveraging the Indian economy’s heavy reliance on cash (98% of all transactions involve cash, and 86% of all bills in circulation were the demonetized ₹500 and ₹1,000) to either catch criminals and hoarders of black money or force them to forfeit their stashes. As reported last fall, the thinking went that while large stashes of newly demonetized cash earned via legitimate commerce could be explained with receipts and income statements, demonetized cash earned via illegitimate commerce would come with no valid receipt or income statement and would not be eligible to be exchanged for the new bills. In theory, those holding no black money would lose nothing, while those with black money would be forced to choose between admitting criminal activity and outright losing a substantial amount of money.

Unfortunately, this storyline has not played out in practice. As the December 30th deadline for exchanging old bills for new ones passed, Bloomberg reportedthat ₹14.97 trillion of the ₹15.4 trillion that was demonetized (over 97%) had been validated and exchanged for new bills. Such a high rate of validation suggests that either India’s shadow economy is far smaller than initially estimated, or that hoarders of black money were able to successfully launder their dark fortunes in a short amount of time, despite the promises of a “surgical strike.” Given that estimates of the size of India’s shadow economy are consistently reported in the billions – and was estimated at around ₹25 trillion as recently as June 2016 – it seems farfetched to assume that less than 3% of the most popular bills in an overwhelmingly cash-driven economy can be attributed to black money. Rather, such a high rate of validation more likely indicates that holders of black money were able to launder their money some way or another.

While it is unclear at this point exactly how this was done on such a complete scale, there have been reports of bankers knowingly exchanging counterfeit or unaccounted-for bills in return for payment. Interestingly, while gold prices jumped over ₹1,000 per 10g the day after demonetization was announced after staying relatively steady the week before, they immediately returned roughly to pre-demonetization levels a day later and actually steadily fell through November and December. This sharp increase in demand, followed by a quick correction and steady fall, suggests that while black money hoarders may have immediately turned to gold in order to launder their dark fortunes, this common laundering technique was not a major contributor to the unexpectedly high validation rate of old bills. Regardless of the precise technique of the laundering, the fact that over 97% of illegal bills were validated indicates that black money hoarders were able to successfully side-step Mr. Modi’s “surgical strike” against them.

Sadly, not everyone emerged unscathed from the “surgical strike.” As reported last fall, Indian housewives who had spent generations collecting personal fortunes secret from their husbands were now forced to make a choice between losing those fortunes altogether, or admitting to their families that they had been siphoning money from their husbands. Given that many women in India hold second-class economic citizenship and are kept from handling money and making purchases, these secret stashes of wealth represent a rare form of financial and personal freedom for Indian women. Now, for many, that freedom has likely vanished, perhaps along with the trust of their husbands.

More saliently, dozens of people have died as a result of demonetization, primarily due to exposure from standing in bank queues for hours and from hospitals refusing to accept old bills. Mamata Banajaree, a member of the opposition to Mr. Modi, claimed that 112 people in total had died due to demonetization between the time it was announced and the December 30th deadline. Though it is unclear as to how Mr. Banajaree came to exact number, it should be noted there were at least total 55 deaths reported merely 10 days after demonetization was announced. Because withdrawals of the new bills were limited to ₹2,000 a day during the 50 day exchange window, and banks often ran out of new bills before queues were exhausted, people looking to exchange demonetized bills often had to stand outside for hours day after day in order to exchange all of their bills. While limiting the withdrawal amount meant to prohibit black money hoarders from exchanging their entire fortunes at once, it also kept old or sick Indians trapped outside day after day, likely contributing to such a seemingly high death toll.

A Move to the Digital Economy

However, while demonetization may have come up short in its public goal of surgically striking hoarders of black money, evidence exists to suggest that it may still yield positive results in the story of India’s long-term growth. By November 30th, less than a month after demonetization was announced, 30 million new bank accounts had been opened nationwide, and it has been reported that many of the previously “dormant” bank accounts (accounts without any transactions for 24 months or more) have awoken as well. Furthermore, as money moves from cash to digital form, previously reliable practitioners of the cash-only business model, such as laundry washers, rickshaw drivers, and street vendors, have started offering digital payment options. Paytm, an electronic payment service, reported over 14 million new accounts in November, and Oxigen Wallet, a rival e-payment service, has reported a 167% increase in daily users since November 8th. Though only small steps on a long road, this is good evidence that India’s journey toward a digital economy has been nudged forward by the shock of demonetization.

The obvious benefit of a digitized economy is that it makes economic activity much easier to regulate and tax, due to greater ease of electronically tracing transactions as opposed to them being conducted under the table with largely untraceable cash. On December 29th, just before the 50 day window for exchanging notes expired, India’s Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, declareddemonetization a success for tax collection purposes. According to Jaitley, direct tax collection (collections of taxes directly billed by the government, such as income taxes) increased 14.4% through December 19th, and indirect tax collection (collections of taxes that are paid to the government through a third party, such as sales taxes) increased by 26.6% through the end of November. Moreover, government reports from 47 cities in India have reported a combined 268% increase in tax revenue for November 2016 as compared to the previous November. For a developing economy, such a dramatic increase in tax collection efficiency is especially important , and demonetization should be given credit for nudging the Indian economy down the path toward digitization, even if it did so as an afterthought to punishing black money hoarders.

Of course, while the digitization of India’s economy is increasing at record levels, it still remains an overwhelmingly cash-driven economy at the moment. This is especially true in rural areas, where access to banking services often involves walking miles to the nearest ATM, rendering economic digitization inconvenient at best. Moreover, stores and shops in rural areas tend not to be equipped to accept digital payment, fostering little to no immediate need to open a bank account. Similarly, truckers and transportation services rely heavily on cash and walked off the job when they ran out of legal tender in the early days of demonetization, oftentimes abandoning their cargo on the side of the road. Getting transportation and cargo-moving providers to go digital in the near future seems difficult, as it would require them to have access to e-payment options wherever they go, which would involve all or most of the entire country getting on board with digitization.

Lessons for the Future

While the dust is still settling and new information about the effectiveness of demonetization is coming in every day, a clear question has emerged: why make the move a surprise? Of course, Mr. Modi made it known at the outset that demonetization was meant to catch hoarders of black money off guard and therefore needed it to be a surprise in order to deny hoarders a chance to plan ahead. However, that over 97% of the demonetized currency was validated suggests that hoarders of black money were able to adjust on the fly despite a lack of warning. Instead, those who were unable to adjust tended to be the poor, who could not afford to queue at a bank for hours, truckers and transportation services who also couldn’t afford to queue at a bank for hours and who rely on being able to use cash anywhere to refuel and conduct business, and those in rural areas without easy access to banking services or e-payment infrastructure. Making demonetization a surprise hurt these types of people the most by inconveniencing them after denying them the opportunity to plan ahead. As has been shown before, and as Mr. Modi should have been expected to consider beforehand, it is often the most disadvantaged that are most severely impacted by the economics of shock.

Additionally, there is little evidence to suggest that demonetization needed to be a surprise in order to have the effect it has had on economic digitization. In convincing Indians to go digital, Mr. Modi only needed to give them a reason to get to the bank and not trust cash so blindly, and there is no reason why this couldn’t have been accomplished via a lengthy rollout of demonetization, wherein the public would be warned months or even a year before 86% of the bills in circulation were to be invalidated. This would allow Indians of all types of backgrounds to plan ahead, but would still force them to go to a bank and exchange or deposit their old bills eventually, thereby achieving the major win of demonetization without throwing much of the nation’s economy in temporary turmoil. For future governments looking to fight black money or digitize their economies, the lesson they may learn from India’s experience with demonetization should simply be to take their time.

Of course, politics do matter in economic decisions, and demonetization was arguably just as much a political move as it was an economic one. For Mr. Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a grand “surgical strike” against corruption plays better politically than does a slow, methodical nudging of the Indian economy toward digitization. As it happened, Mr. Modi and the BJP were better able to frame demonetization as a grand, patriotic sacrifice for a better India. One might imagine an opposing scenario wherein Mr. Modi rolled out slow banking reforms aimed at digitizing India’s economy, having to drag Indians through months of inconvenience and spend months drumming up support for such a dull measure.

With five states in which the BJP is active holding elections in the coming weeks, it shall be seen how effective Mr. Modi and the BJP can be at continuing to frame their move as one of heroic patriotism. Home to over a fifth of India’s population and comprising a multitude of castes and demographic groups, elections in these five states have been regarded as a referendum on demonetization. Early polling suggests that the BJP is poised to put forth a strong showing in Uttarakhand, and win the large state of Uttar Pradesh, indicating at least an acceptance of the necessity of demonetization.

However, with the polls in the large state of Uttar Pradesh staying open through March 8th and the state of Manipur not voting until March 4th, the BJP’s political opposition still has some time to turn the tide. To do so, they will almost certainly need to brand demonetization as an unnecessarily quick, ill-prepared economic move made with political gain in mind. Luckily for the BJP’s opposition, the economic justification for this narrative is there.

Fighting Corruption through Monetary Policy

While much of the world was focused on the day’s US presidential election, India’s Prime Minister and TIME’s Person of Year Narendra Modi announced on November 8, 2016 that the current 500 and 1000 rupee (around $7.5 and $15 respectively) notes will no longer be considered legal tender in India. While citizens have until December 30 to exchange the old notes for their new versions, many airports, railway stations, hospitals, and fuel stations only accepted the soon-obsolete notes until November 11. The ₹500 and ₹1000 notes are by far the most widely used denominations in India, together representing 86% of the bills in circulation in an economy where 98% of all consumer transactions use cash. Prior to Mr. Modi’s surprise live announcement, there was little to no public indication of this move, inciting a flurry of panic and quick analysis.

Why is this happening?

Deemed a ‘surgical strike’ on black money by Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia, Mr. Modi implemented this program as a part of a larger effort to fight black money and corruption, which he has said “are the biggest obstacles in eradicating poverty”. India’s economy is heavily reliant on cash, therefore it is relatively easy for traders in black and grey markets to launder money made in those markets. For example, it is difficult to tell the difference between a ₹500 note that was obtained by selling illegal goods and a ₹500 note obtained by selling fruit on the street corner. A cash-driven economy allows an individual to be more flexible with which markets that they participate in, making participation in black markets more profitable than it otherwise would be.

But this flexibility comes with a crippling weakness. By suddenly declaring the most popular denominations worthless, anyone who holds any of the worthless notes must go to a bank and exchange them for their replacement currency. For legitimate business, this shouldn’t be too difficult, as they have income statements on hand that justifies their large cash deposits. Similarly, households who are not engaged in black markets are unlikely to have exorbitant amounts of cash lying around, and will thus face little questioning from banks when they attempt to trade their old notes in for new ones. However, individuals holding black money have a tougher time explaining where their money originated, meaning that much of this illegally obtained money will be lost.

However, there are ways for black money holders to get around the new policy and recoup some of what they stand to lose. Before airports and railways stopped accepting the soon-obsolete notes, many airlines and railway companies saw a surge in first-class ticket purchases paid for in the newly obsolescent notes, followed by cancellations the same afternoon and demands for payment in new notes. Additionally, some black money hoarders have reportedly paid others to deposit medium amounts of hoarded cash (under ₹2,500 so as not to alert authorities) in bank accounts accessible to the hoarder, or with the stipulation that the depositor would soon withdraw the money and pay it back to the hoarder when the new legal tender is available. Both of these methods, if inconvenient and laden with transaction costs, allow hoarders of black money to soften the blow of Mr. Modi’s ‘surgical strike’.

What is the extent of the problem of black money?

While placing an exact number on the size of the Indian black money economy has proven difficult, estimates are consistently reported to be in the hundreds of billions of US dollars. In 2012, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation reportedthat “Indians are the largest depositors in banks abroad with an estimated 500 billion US dollars[…]of illegal money stashed by them in tax havens”. Ambit Capital Research, a research firm focused on Indian economic activity, estimated in June of 2016 that, while the black economy had been steadily contracting since the 1980s, it’s current size is around 20 percent of India’s GDP, and larger than the GDP of countries like Thailand and Argentina.

Despite encouraging participation in illegal commerce, the size of the black economy also hides billions of taxable dollars from the Indian government, stunting the impact of development projects and anti-poverty programs put forth by the government. While the Indian government cannot easily recoup all or near all of its lost tax revenue, it has announced that deposits of more than 2.5 thousand rupee be taxed, and that individuals depositing large amounts inconsistent with personal income statements would be subject to be taxed at “the tax amount plus a penalty of 200 per cent of the tax payable…per the Section 270(A) of the Income Tax Act”. Assuredly, the government should see a large boost to its coffers by the new year, as well as a higher flow of incoming tax money in the future if participation in black markets is considered less safe economically as before, which one would expect it might.

Has this been done before?

This is not the first time that the Indian government has demonetized certain bank notes. In January 1946, the ₹1,000, and ₹10,000 notes were declared illegal, only to be reintroduced eight years later along with a new ₹5,000 note. In an effort to curb the growing presence of black money in 1978, India again demonetized the ₹1,000, ₹5,000, and ₹10,000 notes, thinking that the demonetization of the highest value notes would address corruption issues with minimal collateral damage. However, there had been unofficial consideration of this move since late 1972 when the Wanchoo committee, a direct tax inquiry set up by the government, released a report suggesting the then-hypothetical move would help curb the short-term influence of black money. This long run-up of unofficial talk undermined the surprise of the move when it was finally implemented, allowing hoarders of black money to prepare by depositing their earnings in banks or in assets like real estate and jewelry.

Elsewhere, demonetization – or stripping banknotes of their value – is relatively common worldwide. For example, the demonetization of various European currencies to make way for the euro is a salient example. However, demonetization for the specific purpose of fighting corruption is more rare, though the demonetization of higher value notes to fight illegal trade has gained some traction in the West as of late. Early in 2016, economist Peter Sands supported the elimination of the $100 and £500 bills, stating that the use of electronic payment systems has made these bills far less useful for individuals involved in legal trade, whereas these high end bills are essential to carrying out large scale black market commerce. Still, some doubt the feasibility or use of retracting these higher end bills, and the idea has yet to be really seriously considered.

What are the short-term and long-term economic impacts?

Undoubtedly, hoarders of large amounts of the illegal cash will be hurt by India’s demonetization of specific notes, as their stashes of wealth are now hardly worth more than the paper that they are printed on. Though there are ways around the issue as aforementioned, the circuitous route taken to convert the illegal cash carries transaction costs that are inconvenient at best. However the precision of Mr. Modi’s self-described ‘surgical strike’ leaves much to be desired. In addition to punishing purposeful tax evaders and black market tycoons, India’s small and medium sized businesses are expected to see activity slow dramatically over the next few weeks. Unlike large businesses who can run on credit, these businesses rely on cash transactions from customers for their products and cash payments to secure inventory and goods. Undoubtedly the lack of access to the most popular denominations of cash will only hurt these cash-based businesses, though the exact severity of the impact depends on how quickly these businesses and their customers can obtain access to the new ₹500 and ₹1000 notes. At this point, it is not clear how quickly this is expected to happen.

As time as gone on, it is becoming increasingly difficult to believe that Modi’s government has sufficiently considered many of the details of managing the transition. Banks are still not receiving enough of the new notes to meet their needs, and 33 people had died from exhaustion standing in queues to exchange old bills for new. Also, a week after the announcement, over 60 percent of the nation’s 9.3 million truck drivers have walked off the job after not having access to legal tender to pay road tolls. Considering that 65 percent of the country’s freight is road-based, the government’s lack of prioritizing the distribution of new currency threatens to slow the country’s domestic economy considerably for the next couple of months.

Additionally, Indian housewives up and down the country stand to lose personal fortunes. “For many generations”, it is said that Indian housewives have been stashing small shares of their husband’s incomes in shoeboxes and dark closet corners, which over time can build up into small fortunes. For many Indian women, these small fortunes represent a rare form of financial and personal freedom, as the fortune’s unbeknownst-to-many form of existence allows the holders to spend them however they please. Now however, women across the country are facing the difficult decision to come clean about their conduct to their families and face ridicule and humiliation, or lose the fortune’s altogether.

In the long term, this policy’s effect on the Indian economy is unclear. On the one hand, shocks like this demonstrate the ironically fickle nature of fortunes based upon large holdings of cash, which might encourage Indians to open bank accounts and trust electronic payment systems more than they have in past. Doing so would allow the government to tax more efficiently, and make it more difficult to hoard large fortunes in cash from illegal activity. Additionally, the move will make obsolete the rash of counterfeit ₹500 bills flowing in from Pakistan, often to fund terrorist activity.

While this move may well come to represent a potent one-time strike against black money fortunes, it is not clear whether it addresses the structural conditions that allow black money to flow freely in India. A one-time obsolescence of the most popular bills does not deter future black money holders from buying value-holding assets like real estate with illegally-obtained tender, and selling it later for legally-obtained tender. Indeed, much of India’s black money is laundered this way through the real estate, jewelry, and gold markets. While in the short term one would expect these markets to depress in the absence of black money, it is highly unrealistic that these markets do not rebound in the near future and re-emerge as a haven for black money as black markets get back on their feet.