Marine Le Pen Barred From Running in 2027 French Elections

Associated Press/Michel Euler

On March 31st, French courts found the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, Marine Le Pen, guilty of embezzling millions of euros of European Union funds. This decision shook national politics, making Le Pen ineligible for the 2027 presidential election in France. 

This court decision has massive implications. Before the verdict, Le Pen was the frontrunner in national polling ahead of the 2027 French election. Projected to win 32.0 percent of the vote, with the runner-up only receiving 23.5 percent, Le Pen was the clear national favorite. After running three times before, the next election would have been Le Pen’s best chance at winning the French presidency. 

There are still chances Le Pen could run for president. She is determined not to back down, stating that “I’m a fighter and I’m not going to be eliminated.” Part of her strategy to undermine court supremacy has been attacking the legitimacy of the institution, calling the court’s decision a “‘nuclear bomb detonated by a corrupt system.” Moreover, Le Pen has received support in her fight against the judiciary, as some supporters have sent death threats to the judges who issued her conviction. A French court of appeals also said it would expedite her case, allowing for her trial to take place before next summer. This would allow her to run a successful presidential campaign for the following election. 

What’s next for the Rassemblement National?

In light of this crisis, the Rassemblement National must decide its next move. Although Le Pen is a cornerstone of the party, which was founded by her father Jean-Marie in 1972, the wisest decision could be to look towards another candidate. Even if her appeal is heard in 2026, there is a chance the current sentence will be upheld, shortening the time another candidate might need to prepare for the presidential election. 

Within the Rassemblement National, the clear choice for successor is Jordan Bardella. Le Pen’s charismatic 29-year-old prodigé has taken over the party since her conviction. But, this does not mean the Rassemblement National is prepared to support him in a presidential race. Le Pen stated that Bardella is “a tremendous asset for the movement. … I hope we don’t have to use that asset any sooner than we have to.” Bardella is remaining committed to Le Pen, affirming that he will “continue to fight with her to the end, hand in hand. I am totally loyal to her.” 

All in all, Rassemblement National members are likely to stand by Le Pen’s side, with Politico stating that she is “almost universally worshipped within her party. None of her allies appear ready to tell her that endorsing Bardella now, rather than waiting for the courts to rule on her case, is the safest way to protect her movement.” Even at the risk of an underdeveloped presidential election, her allies are unwilling to jump-ship to Bardella.  

If Le Pen refuses to offer her support, this could cause a rift not only in their party but in far-right French politics at large.  It seems unlikely, but depending on the outcome of the appeal case and the level of support garnered by Bardella before the 2027 presidential campaign, it is possible that he could step out from behind her shadow. 

Even if Le Pen and the Rassemblement National choose to endorse Bardella, this is not universally viewed as the best option. “Bardella is still quite a young politician. It would be a big step for him to be the presidential candidate in two years’ time” states Nicholas Starin, associate professor at John Cabot University in Rome. 

Beyond that, Le Pen’s conviction could have devastating consequences for her and the Rassemblement National.  While some believe her protégé Jordan Bardella could take the presidential ticket if she is prevented from running, others think rival right-wing parties will benefit most from the situation. As France demonstrates increasingly conservative tendencies, far-right politicians such as Éric Zemmour, Gérald Darmanin, or Bruno Retailleau could seize the opportunity and gain votes with Le Pen out of the picture. 

Le Pen and Trump

After a life spent in right-wing politics, Le Pen has recently focused her attention on demonstrating that she will put national interests first, building the narrative that she is the best candidate for France. By not praising President Donald Trump’s electoral victory and not attending his inauguration, Le Pen may be acknowledging that many French citizens view Trump as a threat to Europe, even if they agree with his far-right stances, prioritizing her people above pleasing the American president. 

For his part, despite a cold relation with Le Pen in the past, Trump has expressed his support for her after the indictment. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the “Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech, and censor their Political Opponent.” His comparison reflects the image of martyrdom he has used to rally support behind himself in previous presidential elections.  

Many have drawn parallels between Le Pen’s sentencing and the multiple cases called against Trump, namely “for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star, for attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election that he lost, and for retaining classified documents after his first term ended.” In the United States, as Trump regained control of the White House, it seems his charges had little impact on the political landscape, potentially demonstrating that some Americans do not take powerful criminals seriously: if one has enough influence, they may be able to get away with illegal activity. If anything, Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric capitalizes on his convictions, using them to portray the idea that judicial institutions target far-right leaders who challenge the “corrupt” system, giving him a clear motivation to support Le Pen in her appeals process. 

Yet, unlike Trump’s charges, France will feel the consequences of a prominent politician’s  indictment. Le Pen’s four-year prison sentence was reduced to two under house arrest, and her 100,000€ fine should not cause too much trouble, but the five-year ban on running for office could have severe consequences. Despite his wrongdoings, Trump’s criminal and civil charges resulted in few consequences, as he has run for president twice since the original charges were pressed. On the other hand, French judges are not willing to let Le Pen go free for her crimes, even though she was predicted to win the next presidential election. 

Could Marine Le Pen’s sentencing set an international, or at least European or French, precedent of prosecuting high-level politicians when they commit crimes? What this means for far-right French politics is yet to be seen as Le Pen’s appeal is processed and the 2027 election approaches.

Incumbent Ecuadorian president reelected for another term

Ecuador’s newly reelected president, Daniel Noboa, addresses the media to say he won the presidential election. David Diaz Arcos/Reuters

In a rematch between Ecuador’s two 2023 presidential candidates, Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa won the country’s runoff elections held on April 13th, defeating Luisa González with a 10-point lead. The elections came after neither candidate won a majority in a snap election held on February 9th. While the conservative, banana-billionaire incumbent was quick to announce that he had secured another four-year term, his opponent, left-leaning lawyer González, demanded a recount of the votes that she claimed were the result of “grotesque electoral fraud.”

Previously, Noboa, at age thirty-five, became Ecuador’s youngest elected head of state in November 2023 after winning another snap election held following President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly to avoid an impeachment vote. After only serving a year and a half, elections were set to be held again on February 9th for the next presidency, which resulted in a “technical tie.” Noboa won 44.17% of the votes and González 44% (the third candidate Leonidas Iza had 5.25%).  Voter turnout for round 1 of the elections was 82%, increasing to 84% in round 2 of the elections following a heated presidential debate.

While President Noboa expressed skepticism following the first round of votes, he has failed to provide any definitive evidence of election fraud or malfeasance, instead asserting that the “irregularities” were being reviewed in areas where the counts “did not add up.” However, in observations independent from the elections, both the Organization of American States (OAS) and the EU Election Observation Mission denied Noboa’s allegations of fraud.

Historically, an incumbent being successfully reelected in Ecuador is rare, yet, ultimately, issues with rampant crime and gang violence tipped the voters over the edge. With rampant crime stemming from cocaine production and narco-trafficking from neighboring countries Colombia and Peru, Ecuadorian citizens have fallen victim to violence across the country. While Noboa put this topic at the forefront of his campaign, González stressed different goals of increasing social spending to boost the economy and cut fuel prices—a message that ultimately didn’t resonate enough with voters. 

Despite making modest progress in reducing crime rates and drug gang presence, Noboa’s past actions in implementing emergency military measures to curb crime and successfully reducing homicide rates, from 46.18 per 100,000 people to 38.76, swayed citizens into giving him another chance to produce more tangible results. González, on the other hand, garnered little attention in her various government positions over the years, until being selected by the RC (Citizens Revolution) as its presidential candidate in the snap election in 2023.

As a whole, the candidates shared some similar goals and policies, including endorsing continued oil drilling in the Amazon and weakening Indigenous governance rights. Third-party candidate and self-identified Marxist-Leninist Leonidas Iza, however, directly opposed these policies in his campaign, advocating for Ecuador’s Indigenous communities and powerful grassroots communities, the End Amazon Crude Movement, and the introduction of a new era of climate justice. While the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) strongly aligned with Iza, with around 5% of overall national votes, much of the community was divided over which candidate would best advocate for their interests. The organization’s failure to fully assemble around one candidate called into question the organization’s ability to unify its members.

In recent years, President Noboa has aligned himself with other conservative presidents, including Argentina’s President Javier Milei, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, and the U.S.’s President Donald Trump, even going further to align with Trump’s anti-immigration policies and declare a willingness to accept deportees. Ecuadorian citizens have shown disappointment in this alignment, believing that a relationship with President Trump should have already excluded the country from the 10% tariffs outlined for Trump’s “Liberation Day.” González even mocked Noboa when these tariffs were implemented following his informal visit to Mar-a-lago. Now, Ecuadorian citizens hope the new president takes the same strong stance against drug and crime rates, following through on his vows to fix the detrimental effects it has had on the country.