Russia’s Expanding Drone and Airspace Violations Across NATO
By Dpsu.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0
As of October 6, 2025, the airspace over Europe has become increasingly contested. What began on September 10 as an incursion of at least 19 Russian kamikaze drones into Polish territory has evolved into a broader and persistent pattern of airspace violations across NATO’s eastern flank. The incursion of Russian drones up to 300 kilometers into Polish airspace prompted a massive NATO response. Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, and Italian AWACS aircraft worked alongside NATO refueling tankers in one of the largest coordinated air operations since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, and Lublin were temporarily closed, and debris from intercepted drones fell near residential areas, but no injuries were reported.
Since then, similar incidents have spread westward. Estonia confirmed that three Russian MiG-31s briefly entered its airspace on September 19. Romania reported a drone crash along the Danube just days later. Germany has investigated a “drone swarm” over Schleswig-Holstein, believed to be surveilling critical infrastructure, and several other European nations have been forced to temporarily shut a number of airports in late September after repeated unidentified flights over a series of Danish and German regions.
The rise in Russian flyovers and drone incursions into NATO airspace reflects a shift toward aerial harassment designed to exploit the grey zone between peace and open war. By testing NATO’s air defenses and resolve, Moscow seeks to undermine deterrence without provoking a direct military clash. Each overflight increases the risk of miscalculation, where one mistaken interception could trigger a crisis.
The incidents have accelerated European defense integration. Poland and the Baltic states are expanding air surveillance networks, Germany and Denmark have tightened coordination with NATO command, and the EU is fast-tracking procurement for anti-drone systems. Western leaders, including Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, and Keir Starmer, have condemned the drone incursions as deliberate provocations meant to unsettle the continent.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the September drone incursion “the most serious violation of sovereignty since World War II.” NATO invoked Article 4 and began Operation Eastern Sentry, an integrated air defense mission to protect the eastern flank. Later that week, at an EU summit in Copenhagen, defense ministers proposed and began to discuss plans for an “Eastern Flank Drone Wall.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy added to the proposal by recommending that frozen Russian assets be used to fund a joint European air defense system.
Europe’s airspace is becoming an increasingly contested zone, with drone and aircraft incursions now a regular occurrence. The incidents have hardened NATO’s stance, reinforced defense spending commitments, and stressed the need for shared air surveillance. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s comments on October 6, calling the drone disruptions “a useful reminder of the dangers of war,” underscore the Kremlin’s intent to use intimidation as a strategic tool.
These repeated provocations mark a new phase in European security: one defined by invisible confrontations above the clouds, where vigilance replaces rest and every radar blip could carry diplomatic consequences. The safety of Europe now relies as much on coordination and composure as on the weapons that guard its skies.
Ukrainian and Russian War Negotiations: The Role of US Intervention
President Trump and President Putin meeting in Helsinki, Finland 2018. Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians and displaced millions more. Despite previously attempting several rounds of peaceful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine alone, all have failed. Now, three years into the war, negotiations to facilitate the end of the conflict seem to be bearing fruit. Much of the recent swift negotiations are being attributed to the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been pushing for an end to the war since he first began campaigning. Yet, the format of these negotiations has drawn international criticism for their exclusion of Ukraine, one of the two parties embroiled in the conflict. Talks between the United States and Russia began in Saudi Arabia, yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian diplomats had not received an invitation to war negotiations.
As a whole, Trump’s coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin has worried many U.S. allies. Not only has Trump failed to denounce Russia for their invasion of Ukraine, but he has also refused to sign a formal statement attributing Russia as the cause of the war, instead stating that the focus should be on ending the war rather than its causes. This set the stage for the meeting of President Trump and President Zelensky on February 28th to discuss mineral rights in Ukraine, which quickly turned into a highly contentious, tense discussion. Among the key moments of the meeting were Trump calling President Zelensky a “dictator,” blaming him for starting the war, and criticizing him for not thanking the United States for the foreign aid that Ukraine has been given, all of which led to President Zelensky walking out of the meeting without signing any agreement.
Following this meeting, President Zelensky sent a letter to the Oval Office stating that Kyiv was ready for negotiations and peace. Since then, President Trump spoke with President Putin on March 18th, and a 30-day partial ceasefire against attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been reached. Yet, President Putin still has not agreed to a complete ceasefire, stating that there were still issues that needed to be “ironed out.” The direction of further negotiations remains uncertain.
In the midst of this crisis, many European nations have been expressing concerns about the Trump administration’s new foreign relations policies, especially with the knowledge that Ukrainian aid is conditional pending. French President Emmanuel Macron is one of these leaders, and in response has hosted several European-specific meetings over the past couple of weeks that excluded the United States from discussions on potential aid solutions for Ukraine. As a result, tensions have continued to increase between Europe and the U.S., with many allies continuing to look for alternative routes of aid without involvement from the U.S. This shift toward isolationist policy marks a stark shift in U.S. foreign policy and international diplomacy, with European allies learning they will need to rely less and less on the U.S. for support.
Russia and Iran 20-Year Treaty Strengthens Strategic Ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian. Evgenia Novozhenina/AFP via Getty Images
On January 17th, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian negotiated a 20-year defense treaty titled “The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement,” outlining new alliance policies between the two states. The deal covers a variety of topics, including science, trade, transportation, agriculture, military, intelligence, education, and culture, all of which are geared toward boosting trade and economic relations between Russia and Iran.
Among the agreed-upon policies, was a prohibition on either state giving aid to an aggressor attacking the other, as well as a policy barring the use of each other’s territory in a way that threatens the stability of the other. However, unlike the treaty between Russia and North Korea, a mutual defense clause requiring one country to come to the other’s defense in the event of an attack was not included. The exclusion of such a policy is particularly notable, as it could have potentially required Iran to get involved in Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Made just days before President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the negotiation announcement has led to worldwide speculation on the motivations behind its timing, with many pointing to the increasing pressure posed by strict Western sanctions and Trump’s “America First” foreign policy interests. With the American president promising to end the war in Ukraine and threatening a tougher stance on Iran, many believe this deal is meant to coordinate a joint-retaliation response and stir worry across the West.
Yet this deal is not a sudden decision, but rather the cumulation of months of negotiating that began when Pezeshkian took office last July, ultimately being signed on the first visit between these two presidents at the Kremlin. Building off a relationship that began after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Iran have made a number of strategic moves together over the years, including the construction of Iran’s first nuclear power plant in 2013 and Iran’s entry into the BRICS bloc in 2023. The Syrian Civil War was also a crucial catalyst in the strengthening of bilateral relations, as the two states pooled efforts in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. An effort which, much to Putin and Pezeshkian’s chagrin, failed to prevent his downfall late last year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to further strengthening of relations, as Moscow paid $1.7 billion for 11,000 Iranian Shahed drones to use in the conflict. Given the rich history between Russia and Iran, this treaty has become merely a formality between two well-acquainted allies.
Pezeshkian has even made direct comments on the Russia-Ukraine war, saying he hopes the war can be ended soon with peace talks and negotiations. He further stated that “war is not a good solution to resolve problems and we would welcome talks and achieving peace between... Russia and Ukraine,” emphasizing the need for a mediator to help the states resolve their disputes before tensions worsen and efforts to stabilize become even more difficult.
Looking toward the future of Russia, we can anticipate the construction of more nuclear projects in the region and the creation of a gas pipeline of 55 billion cubic meters per year to Iran via Azerbaijan, a goal which, despite setbacks, is still underway. "This [treaty] creates better conditions for bilateral cooperation in all areas," Putin stated, emphasizing that this “important new chapter” would expand ties and bolster trust and collaboration between the two countries for many years to come.
Putin and Touadéra Hold Discussions on Increasing Bilateral Cooperation
Sergei Chirikov/Reuters
On January 15, 2025, President Fuastin-Archange Touadéra of the Central African Republic (CAR) arrived in Moscow for a three-day official visit aimed at improving bilateral relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Specifically, the states focused on deepening their ties in the realms of military cooperation and political cooperation.
Russia has played a key role in CAR’s security framework since 2018, providing military training and logistical support. During the meeting, both leaders discussed expanding bilateral military cooperation, specifically to focus on enhancing CAR’s defense capabilities amidst ongoing security challenges. Putin emphasized Russia’s commitment to supporting CAR’s sovereignty and stability, offering security support to embattled leaders as they battle with warring rebel factions.
Touadéra and Putin also reviewed economic and political agreements aimed at strengthening CAR’s infrastructure and governance. The Central African leader expressed gratitude for Russia’s assistance in addressing internal conflicts and promoting development. Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to deepening ties beyond military collaboration.
Russia’s involvement in CAR includes the mercenaries from the Wagner Group, whose military contractors have played a large role in supporting CAR’s government forces. Despite the scrutiny they have faced from the international community, the group remains influential in maintaining stability in CAR. By training thousands of local forces, the group has put the rebels on the retreat, turning the tide of CAR’s civil war. In doing so, they’ve gained support in the state, as seen by the unveiling of a bronze monument glorifying the late head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The bilateral talks between President Touadéra and President Putin signify a growing partnership between the two nations outside of military cooperation. While details of future agreements remain confidential, the discussions highlight Russia’s increasing influence in CAR and the African continent. As Russia’s war with Ukraine rages on, they may expand this agreement to make use of CAR troops in the conflict, further diversifying their army (as they’ve already done with North Korean troops). If Putin continues to strengthen his foothold in the region, he may embolden the continent’s authoritarian leaders, further straying Africa from democracy.