Written in the Stars: Examining the Complexities and Dilemmas of Foreign Policy in Space

Space is increasingly becoming the next global arena. Growing international attention toward space as a political terrain has made countries, including the US, need to focus on implementing policies that combat straining competition and the difficulties of space traffic and debris. Not only is space becoming an important topic in international relations, but each state is also responding differently to how they wish to exert their presence in this unique field. The US, through NASA, has installed its preeminence in space through early projects like the launch of Skylab, the first U.S. space station, and the Space Shuttle. Yet, NASA has its own set of challenges and the space landscape is growing more competitive with the rise of other countries like China, Russia, and India pushing for their own undertakings. From historical significance to modern-day implications, understanding how countries respond to this modern arena is essential to predicting outcomes and looming variables when it comes to foreign policy and national security. As modernization moves forward, the Earth is no longer the only political landscape for policymakers to analyze. 

Space has long been a motivator for innovation and competition. In October 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite named Sputnik. This caused a powerful reaction, as the US in a matter of months prompted measures to build and compete with Russia’s space program. With the creation of a civilian space exploration agency dubbed NASA, the international system became even more extensive and vast, calling for long-term missions in places humans have never been before. On September 12th, 1962, President John F. Kennedy addressed Rice University in his powerful speech that committed the United States to a moon landing stating, “Many years ago the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why he wanted to climb it.” He said, "Because it is there. Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked.” Without fully grasping the significance of this major event, the moon landing kick-started the national intrigue in space. The world was watching as spectators as it marveled at the sheer amount of willpower and aptitude required to complete this dangerous mission. The adventure didn’t end at the moon landing and certainly hasn’t ended today.

After six successful lunar missions, NASA’s robotic programs followed with Voyager and Viking and sent astronauts into low Earth orbit with the 1973 launch of Skylab, the first U.S. space station, and the Space Shuttle. These projects not only set the US on the map for space invention, but they also showed how the global system was changing and evolving. Each U.S administration made progress in its respective areas, as different presidents sought to make their own intentions when it came to space. The George W. Bush administration pushed for a return to the moon and a trip to Mars, while President Barack Obama pushed for an asteroid mission and made a subsequent project to orbit Mars by the mid-2030s. President Donald J. Trump’s administration urged a return to the moon and directed the Department of Defense to create a branch of the military under the Air Force that would concentrate completely on threats from space. In February 2020, President Joe Biden’s administration announced its support of a space force. Interestingly, President Biden’s defense budget shows that the Space Force, the smallest brand of the armed forces, accounts for about 2.5% of total Defense Department spending. There was a $2.2 billion increase in 2022, a considerable gain that shows the elevated prominence and focuses on space for the U.S government. Concerning the president’s plans, the Pentagon released documents on May 28, 2021, responding stating the budget “funds capabilities for the contested domain of space” adding that “Competitors like China and Russia are challenging America’s advantage in space by aggressively developing offensive weapons to deny or destroy U.S. space capabilities in conflict.” Each administration, regardless of the distinct goals or plans, understands the critical role space has in security and international relations. The competitive agenda is evident in how space is becoming an embedded factor in policy, economic, and national plans. It is no longer about shooting for just the moon anymore, countries now have their eyes on the stars. 

There is still much to look forward to in the next few years as these programs continue to capture and captivate audiences. NASA’s efforts continually inspire and drive a new generation of scientists and innovators, pushing humans far from just the bounds of Earth. NASA is collaborating with the private sector for its new Artemis program, which aims to put astronauts, including the first woman, on the moon by 2024. These new and exciting projects are not the only benefit of space exploration. After more than fifty years of human activity in space, the societal benefits and the improvement of the quality of life on Earth are seen all over. In a 2009 survey, it was found that fifty percent of the internationally renowned scientists who published in the prestigious publication Nature for three years had been inspired by the mission of Apollo to become scientists. Even more so, an astounding total of 89 percent of the respondents also agreed that human spaceflight inspires younger generations to study science. These statistics give a very clear picture of what space exploration can do for the US, the world, and humankind. Not only does pursuing space exploration help accumulate valuable knowledge, but the progression also enables an improvement in technology, and the job market, and provides an opportunity for scientific discovery. 

Unfortunately, this exploration can come at a cost like the growing multinational competition among states. Although the United States has had a considerable range in space, experts say U.S. dominance in space could be contested by a range of nations. For starters, China became the third nation to independently launch a human into orbit in 2003 and its capabilities have since expanded exponentially. On January 28, 2022, China released a white paper outlining its plans and priorities for the next five years of spaceflight and exploration that gave considerable ambitious and impressive reach. The document states, "In the next five years, China will continue to improve the capacity and performance of its space transport system and move faster to upgrade launch vehicles. It will further expand the launch vehicle family, send into space new-generation manned carrier rockets and high-thrust solid-fuel carrier rockets, and speed up the R&D [research and development] of heavy-lift launch vehicles.” This plan not only demonstrates the extensive international stage but also illuminates the comprehensive census to pursue space. It isn’t just China that contests and strains this competitive nature either. During the December 6th, 2021 summit, Russia and India agreed to joint activities in a human spaceflight program and satellite navigation. These two countries promised to seek “mutually beneficial” cooperation by creating launch vehicles and developing the use of outer space for peaceful purposes, including planetary exploration. These examples show the efforts and strategies of various countries to also seek space development. Through the employment of foreign policy, countries are also establishing key relationships and collaboration models that are perpetuating change and assembling a new global network. 

Simple competition and cooperation isn’t the only factor that U.S policymakers have to pay attention to. The UN’s 2021 Outer Space Security Conference in Geneva, Switzerland held talks about the potential of an arms race and the emergence of how space will be a new harmful battleground in the future, illuminating the recent emergence of counter-space technologies. China and Russia are developing offensive capabilities, including jammers, lasers, and cyberweapons that could damage satellite operations. Benjamin Silverstein, a research analyst for the space project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shared this concern noting,  “I contend that we are watching an arms race unfold. We’re probably past the point at which it’s prudent to focus our main efforts on preventing that arms race.” Many scholars and policymakers like Silverstein are urging countries to update diplomatic resources and establish relationships between rival actors. In an effort to contend with this tribulation, the UN panel voted 163-8 on November 1st, 2021 to create an open-ended working group aimed at preventing an arms race in space. This working group will consider threats to space systems and recommend rules for military activities in outer space, meeting in Geneva for two sessions of five days each in both 2022 and 2023 and reporting to the General Assembly in the fall of 2023. Stressing international collaboration and peaceful talks, the UN, analysts, and scholars are working together to prevent tragedies that would devastate the planet. There seems to be a thread of anxiety that is interwoven in the international community as space diplomacy becomes more and more important if not crucial in preventing war. 

The crisis in space concerning accommodating the new technology and traffic is also a concern for Earth. A growing number of private corporations, including SpaceX Amazon, OneWeb, and China’s iSpace are creating constellations of hundreds or even thousands of orbiting satellites, to provide global wireless internet coverage and other outputs. Their advent raises questions about regulation and how to include a limited resource like a satellite. Many satellites pose risks for managing space traffic and the accumulation of debris. In the MIT Technology Review by Mark Harris, currently planned mega-constellations “could generate over 67,000 ‘collision alerts’ annually, forcing operators to choose between precautionary evasive maneuvers and assuming the small risk of collision.” This could end in disaster for Earth, as orbit could become unusable because of debris. Space is becoming more and more congested, and any future treaties and global agreements must take into account these new rights and obligations of non-state actors and be proactive in these constant changes in technology. 

The employment of multilateral cooperation demands greater awareness of space foreign policy. A larger asteroid or space debris striking an urban area could kill millions, making a disaster waiting to happen. U.S. officials have pressed countries to adopt a basic set of norms and rules for operating in space. For instance, Defense Secretary Lloyd had a talk on Washington Post Live on April 30, 2021, expressing this push, “The other thing I would encourage is norms of behavior, and they talk a little bit about responsible behavior in space. Right now, it is the wild wild west. Short of you can't put weapons of mass destruction in space, or you can't build a military base on a celestial body.” A couple of months later, in July, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III signed a memo pledging the Pentagon to follow five “tenets of responsible behavior in space” operating in space with “due regard” for others and in a professional manner, limiting the creation of space junk, avoiding harmful interference, maintaining separation and safe trajectories, and communicating to enhance safety and stability. This effort needs to be collective, as competition continues to rise and technology gets developed. Innovation, although a pivotal tool for curiosity and captivation, has its setbacks. Although world leaders are reaching for the stars, there needs to be a further job on Earth to keep catastrophes like congestion and warfare at bay. Never has there been a more exciting time in space exploration, yet the shadow of potential conflict looms overhead. Nations need to continue to work together as the Earth becomes not the only arena in which conflict can emerge. There is a prevailing question that can’t help but arise after this ceaseless stress in competition and innovation continues to plague the international community: When does reaching for the stars go too far?

For a Few Rocks More:

One day, the stars and planets we look at will look back at us, for there will be people on these far off rocks. Space will change everything; it will probably change your life, and it will definitely change your kid’s life. What the internet was to Generation Z, space will double or triple in impact. Its presence will permeate every aspect of our lives to the point of cliche (if it already isn’t). Yet, when space is mentioned, it is talked about as a “few acres of snow,” to quote Voltaire’s satirically disparaging description of North America in Candide. However, just like North America, space is the next “few acres of snow”that will come to massively influence the lives of everything and everyone.

Talking about space as a real thing that humanity will inhabit seems wacky and far away, but we are in the middle of the exploration phase. When the expansion phase comes, then we will realize how much potential is just above us, in the vastness. Space is massive, larger than any human can possibly imagine, so when I refer to space expansion, I’m referring to an expansion within our solar system. Nevertheless, going into space and building colonies will fulfill cultural milestones, make trillions of dollars, influence great technological advancements, and, tragically, stain the sky with blood. Will all this energy dedicated to space settlement improve society? Why go into a region that is ridiculously difficult and expensive to access when we are packed to the brim with huddled masses demanding food, water, healthcare, and shelter? Why jump to the sky when the foundations we lift off from are as shaky as the spaceships we will hurtle into space? 

The answer to the question is that the fundamentals that shape our current global society make space travel inevitable. Globalization, growing populations, exponential resource consumption, and capitalism generally incentivize expansion. The issue then is whether this expansion into Space is a positive or negative trend. I hope, and I believe that the offerings of Space that we use will be a net positive for the average citizen of the world. Space has the potential to stimulate life-saving innovations, economic prosperity, sustainable resource acquisition, and even cultural reinvigoration. 

However, the key word is net, meaning that just because Space can benefit society, does not mean that benefit will be distributed roughly equitably or that Space will benefit us all. Maybe, in a hawkish act of hubris, some mustachioed military advisor will use a military space satellite and laser the fertile soil of Earth with the devastation of a nuclear bomb. 

Whether the changes will be net good or bad (I think it’ll be net positive), the changes from space exploration will change the DNA of our society, and, due to safer and more targeted genome editing, probably ourselves. Governments, including the one in Washington, should start planning for this eventuality now, with state and local governments following up in a few decades. A planned out grand strategy for space affairs and expansion will mitigate costs from the monumental changes that await once our spaceships bathe in the voluminous rays of Sol. 

The Timeline of the Second Age of Discovery 

Is 1961, the year Yuri Gagarin became the first man in space, the new 1492? Look at the timeline a certain way, and the comparison is strikingly prescient. In 1492, Columbus sailed the ocean blue, and “discovered” the new world. 115 years later, colonists from the Virginia company would land on foggy shores in the backwaters of the Powhatan confederacy and found Jamestown, the first permanent English settlement in the Americas. Following the Jamestown timeline then, Jamestown: Mars edition should be a thing in 2076, exactly 115 years after Gagarin made his earth shattering voyage.

Is the metaphor perfect? No, old world colonization and conquest of the New world began around the early 1500s, but the Jamestown comparison creates a strong framework to think about the phase we’re in around space exploration. 

Space travel is a cost-inhibitive exercise. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has been praised for dropping the price to send an object into Space to just $2,720 per kilogram. That’s a big drop from the past, but just that cost, combined with laborious construction, testing, and maintenance requires large investments, meaning that only entities with a lot of capital can build the infrastructure required for space travel. The same was somewhat similar in the Age of Discovery where building colonies was capital intensive due to the large amounts of ships, supplies, and people that were needed to maintain a permanent settlement. 

In both situations, private companies (the Virginia Company in 1607, SpaceX & Virgin Galactic today) worked with their respective governments to maximize legality, capital and synergies. Just like the first settlements and expeditions into America, space exploration will not initially be dominated by the private or public sector, because both sectors benefit from a partnership. 

It may feel strange to dedicate thought, time, and money into space exploration when the world is already so chaotic and complex, but I imagine that Europeans must have thought the same way during the 1500s. The Renaissance was in full force lifting the non-Byzantine & Islamic parts of Europe from the “dark ages.” The Reformation, along with its court intrigue, wars, religious fanaticism, and social upheaval ravaged the attention of millions of Europeans. At the battle of Mohacs, the Ottomans reached their territorial zenith, and were then decisively halted 50 years later at the battle of Lepanto. The Gutenberg press introduced new methods of mass communication, and led to the aforementioned Reformation. In England, Henry VIII was busy deciding whether to divorce, behead, or remain with his wives. To many in Europe, just like today, the colonization of new lands was a sideshow viewed with varying degrees of interest by the general public. 

Just because space may seem like a sideshow, doesn’t mean it will remain as such. Sooner or later, I’d contend in 30-50 years, it will be put on center stage. As mentioned earlier, there are a variety of economic, social, and demographic factors that will drive space expansion. Put even more simply, there’s a lot, like in the trillions a lot, of money to be made in space, and that money will drive investment in Space and send us into the stars.

The Fattest Cash cows Float in the Vacuum

There are several major industries associated with space. The most developed are telecommunications (you’re reading this article on a phone which is only connected to the internet through a satellite in space) and scientific research. The next are defense and space tourism, both of which I’ll discuss later. However, the two big future industries that will make trillions of dollars are space mining/resources, and space colonization. The colonies in Space are a bit farther away from space mining operations, but the local economy that will be created from these colonies will be incredibly high-risk, high-reward long-term investments that will attract venture capital like a moth to a flame. 

Regardless, the biggest money makers in the foreseeable future of Space will be in mining operations on the practically limitless amount of rocks orbiting the Solar System. Goldman Sachs, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and Ted Cruz have all argued that the first trillionaires will get this insane wealth through space mining. The most obvious thing that can be mined on these rocks, most of which are asteroids, is an unearthly amount of precious metals and minerals. Gold, Copper, Platinum, Silver, the metals that are the backbone of all industrial nations, are all present in inexhaustible quantities. Just one large, rich asteroid would crash the market for these metals if it would be stripped of its metals immediately. There are dozens of asteroids in very close proximity (relative to space) to Earth that have billion dollar valuations, and the potential profit from these asteroids at current prices would be in the trillions.

Like many things in life, the reality of asteroid mining is orders of magnitude more complicated and expensive than on paper. One method to mine asteroids would be to physically push them into the Moon or Earth’s orbit, and mine them from this closer distance. Even so, all methods will be done mostly by automated spacecraft. 

Space agencies have experience landing automated space drones on asteroids. In December, a Japanese spacecraft will return with an asteroid sample, and on October 21st, NASA successfully put a spacecraft on the Asteroid Bennu, a tiny rock the size of the Empire State building. The craft should return to Earth with a sample of Bennu by 2023. In 2022, NASA plans to launch its Psyche mission which will send a probe to the near metallic asteroid Psyche 16. While technologies to mine asteroids are there, they haven’t been combined effectively enough to do so for a profit. 

Nevertheless, large mining companies are looking into Space as a long term strategy. Collecting rocks in Space will be a laborious, though eventually profitable industry combining the efforts of private mining companies, national government, space agencies, and private space companies. This current lack of technology to mine asteroids will stunt growth for some time, but that will change once the technology is created. The boom is coming: Just wait. 

There’s another, equally pragmatic but not as short-term profitable reason for asteroid mining: Climate change. Mining is incredibly toxic to the environment. It’s a major fossil fuels emitter, it’s incredibly resource intensive, and the pollution of some mining operations have turned local ecosystems into toxic wastelands. By offplaneting mining operations, vital minerals and metals can be extracted in an environmentally friendly way because the extraction isn’t happening in a terrestrial environment. Spaces, once used for mining, can be transformed into natural reserves, parks, commercial space, or housing. There’s another

In Space we find the elixir of life in great quantities: water. Currently abundant on Earth, water exists in even greater amounts within our Solar System. Mining water may seem redundant, because Earth is full of water, but having water in Space will incentivize space exploration, space expansion, and conflict mitigation all while making a hefty profit. 

Ground into its elements, water is just two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom. It’s this hydrogen that has a purpose: As Hydrogen fuel. This technology already exists. It’s used, albeit in different forms, in cars as a fuel cell and as rocket propellant. Creating a hydrogen supply chain through Space however, could be revolutionary in the revenue it generates, and the expansion in Space it would streamline.

What would a space-based hydrogen supply chain look like? There are multiple ways in which it could take shape, and depends a lot on technological discovery, and industry/government investment. However, I’ll adapt one postulated Bloomberg TV and mix in other sources and discoveries.

Imagine, a white, speckled dot surrounded by a sea of multifarious illuminations approaching in the distance. A spacecraft’s thrusters are seen going into a slow burn as they gracefully pivot into a landing position. Just over the crest, a bright gleam emanates from a metallic, plastic creation on the surface of the moon. Set to synthwave, a mining colony, almost completely robotic, comes into full view and reveals itself in its barest glory. It’s the beginning of a fascinating operation.

There’s a variety of things to be mined on the moon. Rare earth metals which can be used from everything to buildings to computer processors, Helium-3 which can be used for nuclear energy, and water which is what I’ll be focusing on. Water on the moon exists primarily on the poles, but a recent landmark discovery found water on the surface of the moon. Once mined, the water is separated into hydrogen and oxygen and the hydrogen is converted into a fuel. Then it is carried by rockets to a refuelling station in between the earth and the moon or in low earth orbit (less than 2000 km from Earth). Alternatively, these cargo rockets can carry hydrogen fuel back down to Earth where they can be used to fuel trucks, busses, trains, or cars.

These refuelling stations are incredibly important as they act as gas stations in space. Spacecraft and satellites need not carry all the fuel they plan to use or rely on costly launches from Earth. Launching spacecraft from Earth is expensive because Earth’s gravity and atmosphere are hard, and thus expensive, to break through. On the moon or a large asteroid these worries are greatly diminished, making them cheaper long term options to build colonies after a risky initial investment. Thus, not only could we make orbital hydrogen stations, but we could also cost-effectively supply them with a lunar mining colony. 

An orbital hydrogen station, our gas station in space, could greatly increase the capabilities of private space companies and space agencies to explore and colonize the solar system. Ships won’t need to carry as much fuel. They’ll need enough for launch, and then can immediately refuel to travel in Space where there is much less gravity and fuel goes much farther. Therefore, future spacecraft can be designed to store more cargo and passengers. 

Additionally, a refuelling station can mitigate the space trash problem. Most satellites in low earth orbit are decommissioned and left to float in orbit when they run out of fuel. The ISS is a notable exception, but it’s still an exception. These floating metal husks contribute to a growing space trash problem where remnants of rocket boosters and satellites can fall from the sky (though most burn up in our atmosphere) or destroy existing satellites. By refueling satellites from hydrogen mined on the moon or an asteroid, space agencies will increase the functionality of their satellites. This saves money, and greatly reduces space waste.

This is all possible with available technology and some surprisingly cheap investment. In a report by over a dozen industry experts, they made a case that a hydrogen propellant production facility would take only 4 billion dollars (about the same cost as a Las Vegas luxury hotel) of initial investment to complete a project that would eventually generate 2.4 billion dollars annually. The biggest problem wasn’t technological or financial, the authors argued, but rather of capability. No single organization can do this by itself, but with cooperation between government space agencies, private space companies, and other related industries (mining & chemical), this project is ambitious and risky but feasible. 

The specifics of what happens next are murky. The farther into the future one looks, the harder specific predictions are to make. However, the infrastructure that’s built to support space mining operations are conducive towards the construction of space settlements on asteroids, the moon, and the big, red prize: Mars. 

The mining of metals allows newly built settlements to have nearby accessibility towards construction materials, which would complement hypothetical 3D printing capabilities already on board the spacecraft. And mining water would provide new settlers with a self-sufficient water supply which would reduce dangerously unreliable and expensive logistical support from Earth. Moreover, water can be used to grow crops, can be turned into oxygen, and can, of course, be used in conjunction with solar panels to produce local energy.

The financial opportunities from Space are large from the outset, and will continue to expand as technology advances, and as settlements are created. After all, these settlements will desire goods and services which will likely be facilitated by a capitalist economic structure, or at least AN economic structure. That means that new companies will be created and old ones will expand to fulfill these new demands. Jobs will be created to make sure these demands are completed. The physical expansion into Space will force a supplementary economic expansion, and that will be a net societal benefit.

This is what I mean when I explain the likely inevitability of expansion into Space. Physical expansion fueled by scientific and financial opportunity will create an economic expansion which will bring in more people and start a positive feedback loop. The UN estimates that by 2100 the world population will peak at 11 billion people. These new people will want to live somewhere, and they’ll want to live with the same access to goods and services that is found with most abundance in the Global North. 

By 2100, space colonies won’t take in these extra people, but they’ll create an infrastructure for that to happen, and free up key spaces. Land intensive industries may offplanet, freeing up land in addition to being more eco-friendly, and new resources and industries created through space exploration and expansion will enlarge the global pie of resources and access to luxury goods.

We are in the Jamestown timeline 2.0, and the incentive to keep going in this expansive direction exists from an environmental, financial, and as will be discussed, cultural perspective.

The Cosmic Golden Age

For Space to be an important aspect of the culture, it must first filter into the mainstream culture. This is already somewhat the case. Science Fiction novels like Asimov’s Foundation series, Heinlein’s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, and Liu Cixin’s The Three-Body Problem and shows like Star Trek, Babylon V, and the Twilight Zone have influenced policymakers, entrepreneurs, and cultural influencers of today. However, space travel is presented as a fantasy or future fiction to think about later. In the future, Space won’t be in the future because the discoveries and achievements made in the Cosmos will be part of that present discourse. Space travel will slowly be presented as more realistic and less futuristic. 

The, anybody-can-go-into-space narrative will somewhat ironically first be portrayed by the elites through the form of space tourism. Though they won’t be the only non-Astronauts to go into space- the Challenger shuttle was, before it tragically exploded, supposed to transport the first teacher into space- they’ll be the first, largest, and most publicized group of non-Astronaut individuals to break free from Earth’s gravity. 

SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic, the three big private space companies, are all making the infrastructure for space tourism to happen. All of them will have flights around the end of the decade, but the tickets are in the hundred thousand dollar range, and thus will for a time be only accessible for the billionaires. 

Nevertheless, the media coverage on Facebook, Instagram, TMZ, and cable news will be such that if marketed well these billionaire astronauts will inspire a common dream for people to also want to go to space. If Dwayne Johnson, Taylor Swift, Elon Musk, and MrBeast go to space, many people would want to follow in their footsteps. 

The cultural desire that the elite would first get to experience and then permeate into the mainstream is the tip of the iceberg of space’s cultural impact. The actual iceberg could be the golden age created from space. It’s an argument rooted in history. The core benefits when the periphery of a state enlarges. Essentially, the core of a state benefits when the state’s periphery, the area around the core, gets larger.

Europe went through the Enlightenment, and the Industrial/Scientific revolutions as it expanded during the Age of Discovery. Rome’s success was derived from its massive conquests. The Inca’s achieved their very brief golden age when Pachacuti and his successors blazed through the western South America. The Han of China achieved their golden age when they conquered the Xiongnu. Each case has their own exceptions and contextual considerations, but the common thread is that as these states expanded, the core benefitted. Economies grew, order was maintained, and a cultural flourishing began. In this sense, as many of Earth’s nations expand into space, they will reap the financial and cultural rewards of this new land.

There are two criticisms of this core/periphery dynamic that space expansion avoids to a large extent. First, is that as a multipolar world expands into space they will fight over resources. Secondly, past expansions have nearly always been morally inhumane. As Tacitus (technically Calgacus said it but Tacitus probably made it up so I’m attributing it to him) famously described Roman conquest, “they make a desert and call it peace.” European colonial states, Chinese imperial states, the Aztecs, the Songhai, the Mongols, and the Caliphates of the Arab world all achieved their expansion through a variety of methods, one of which included brutal, bloody, exploitative conquest. 

The first is a more valid concern in Space, but remember, there is infinite space in Space. As humans get farther and farther away from Earth, there’ll be more and more uninhabited space to build mining colonies and settlements. Constant expansion is sustainable because there’s no end to space.  There’s no need for conflict if one’s possible opponents are looking for resources in a completely different direction from Earth. There’ll be less conflict during Earth’s forays into space because states have some scientific, moral, and economic incentives to collaborate. It’s more cost efficient and moral if China, Russia, and the US collaborated to put a colony on Mars than if the three fought over who goes where. However, in the initial stages, when only a few asteroids, moons, and planets are effectively colonizable, there could be room for conflict, and that’s a genuine threat policymakers will have to manage.

The second is, fortunately, less likely simply due to the fact that nobody lives in our Solar System. There might be aliens, but they’re either bacteria that won’t do much besides inspire more people to go into space and study it. Or, they’re aliens so powerful that there’s no counterplay against them except hope they don’t care enough to exterminate everyone. Besides these unlikely possibilities, there’s nobody to conquer, no one to enslave, and nothing to kill. This simple fact will make space colonization much less bloodier than anything Europe approached in the 16th-19th centuries. 

However, just because no one lives outside of Earth’s orbit now, doesn’t mean that in the future space colonizers will become unwilling indentured servants, or suffer from similar forms of exploitation. These concerns will be addressed in the second installment of this article, but when looking at net outcomes, more people will benefit than they will lose from the coming centuries of space exploration and expansion.

Space will revitalize stagnant cultures with common dreams and goals. New jobs, new money, and new technologies will create new industries for people to be creative with and to thrive in. The philosophers will have a field day, the scientists will literally have a field day, and the entertainment industry will film, mock, and write about both having their field days. How this golden age will specifically manifest itself is unpredictable, and how much the gold will shimmer depends on how the bounties of space are managed by policymakers and society writ large, but it can be a golden age.

Conclusions from the Bright side of the Moon

Whether our society becomes more or less dystopian in the next century is difficult to predict. Books have been written on the subject for centuries, and while some predictions are prescient, some are wildly off the mark. However, I believe that space, in the hundred years, would mitigate a dystopia, not enhance it. Sure, technology developed from space colonization may be used by malicious actors, but the predicted trends don’t indicate that this will outweigh the social gains from Space.

Nevertheless, these negative possibilities may happen, and thus deserve to be discussed. Wherever there is the possibility to fail, governments should create policies and strategies to mitigate these shortcomings. I plan to do so in my next segment, where I’ll talk about the reverse of space colonization, and what may happen if malicious actors game the political, economic, and social systems that exist within space and the ones that interact with Earth. The Moon may be bright, but travel into the land where the sun don’t shine, and there is a vast, haunting dark side.